Japan is preparing to ease its arms export regulations, a move that has generated significant interest from countries such as Poland and the Philippines. This development comes as US President Donald Trump’s uncertain security commitments and ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine strain American weapons supplies. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling party approved the changes recently, aiming to revitalize Japan’s pacifist nation’s military industrial sector. The new rules are expected to be formally adopted as early as this month.
Although Japan has largely kept itself isolated from global arms markets since World War II, it allocates $60 billion annually to its military, supporting a robust defense industry capable of producing advanced equipment like submarines and fighter jets. Potential buyers include the Polish military and the Philippine navy, both modernizing amid regional security challenges. Japanese defense contractors Toshiba and Mitsubishi Electric are expanding their workforce and production capacity to meet anticipated demand, revealing details not previously disclosed.
One of the initial deals likely to be approved involves exporting used frigates to the Philippines, which is engaged in maritime disputes with China in the South China Sea. This sale could be followed by missile defense system exports. Cooperation between Warsaw and Tokyo is expected to address gaps in their arsenals, particularly in anti-drone and electronic warfare technologies, Mariusz Boguszewski, deputy chief of mission at Poland’s embassy in Japan. Poland’s WB Group, a major European defense contractor, signed a preliminary drone deal last year with Japanese aircraft manufacturer ShinMaywa.
Several European diplomats view Japan’s policy shift as an opportunity to reduce their heavy reliance on US weapons production, which is currently stretched by ongoing conflicts. Trump’s unpredictable actions, including threats to withdraw from NATO and proposals to invade Greenland, have intensified efforts to diversify defense suppliers. Masahiko Arai, senior vice president at Mitsubishi Electric’s defense division, noted increasing global offers and highlighted the company’s expansion in London and Singapore to support defense exports.
Prime Minister Takaichi’s office declined to comment on specific questions but referred to her February 20 speech, where she emphasized reviewing export controls to strengthen Japan’s defense production and allied capabilities. The US has historically encouraged Japan’s export liberalization to enhance collective defense contributions. While the White House did not respond to inquiries about the policy changes, it stated that US-Japan relations remain strong under Trump and Takaichi.
China’s foreign ministry expressed concerns about Japan’s potential frigate sales to the Philippines, urging Tokyo to act cautiously in military and security matters. The Philippine defense ministry declined to comment.
Japan’s initial steps to relax arms export restrictions began over a decade ago under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who sought to promote joint arms development with allies to counter China’s military rise. However, many limitations, including those on lethal weapons, persisted, and Japanese companies remained hesitant about overseas defense sales. Following a decisive election victory and the departure of a coalition partner opposed to major reforms, Takaichi aims to encourage arms manufacturers to expand production capacity in support of a significant military buildup.
Toshiba plans to hire approximately 500 employees over the next three years and is developing new testing and manufacturing facilities, along with a dedicated defense export department. Kenji Kobayashi, Toshiba’s defense division vice president, noted that reputational risks associated with arms sales have diminished. Some Japanese companies with diverse product lines have expressed concerns about potential negative impacts on their broader customer base, but Kobayashi emphasized focusing on business growth and fulfilling their role.
Mitsubishi Electric is recruiting for overseas sales positions covering fighter aircraft and other military exports. Demand is strongest in Asia, with Europe, Australia, and the US offering markets for components and joint development. Arai anticipates a 50% increase in his unit’s sales, reaching 600 billion yen ($3.8 billion) by 2031. However, some companies remain cautious, as illustrated by Toyota’s refusal to sell engines and parts for a military utility vehicle to Latvian firm VR Cars in 2023, citing business scope and policy constraints.
Despite strict controls on arms transfers to conflict zones, Ukraine is exploring opportunities amid the policy changes. Kyiv’s chamber of commerce in Tokyo plans to launch a new industry group combining Ukrainian and Japanese drone companies to foster technological development aligned with the revised export rules.
The US has traditionally dominated global military supply chains, accounting for the majority of defense imports by Japan, Australia, the UK, and Saudi Arabia between 2021 and 2025. However, Washington’s foreign military sales program has faced criticism for delays, rising costs, and tight technology controls. Japan’s policy shift aims to establish defense supply chains in Asia that reduce dependence on the US, a ruling party official involved in security policy drafting.
South Korea serves as a model, having become the largest defense supplier to Poland and the Philippines over the past five years. Japan, as the world’s fourth-largest economy, holds even greater potential to expand its defense exports and contribute to regional security.
