United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby explored the possibility of merging with American Airlines during a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in late February, signaling a potential industry-altering consolidation. Such a merger between two of the largest U.S. network carriers would represent the most significant consolidation in over a decade, further concentrating a domestic market already dominated by four major players.
By 2025, United and American were the world’s two largest airlines by available capacity, including international routes, OAG data. The discussion occurred on February 25, near the conclusion of a White House meeting focused on the future of Dulles Airport. This was just days before the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which caused jet fuel prices to surge and prompted airlines to increase fares and fees to manage rising expenses.
Kirby argued to administration officials that a combined airline would be more competitive internationally, highlighting the Trump administration’s emphasis on addressing U.S. trade deficits globally. He noted that two-thirds of long-haul seats to and from the U.S. are operated by foreign carriers, even though 60% of those passengers are American citizens.
Industry experts expressed skepticism about the likelihood of regulatory approval, citing anticipated opposition from unions, rival airlines, lawmakers, and airports, as well as concerns over overlapping routes and potential job losses. A White House insider conveyed doubts about the merger’s impact on competition and ticket prices, especially as the administration focuses on consumer costs ahead of the November midterm elections.
Antitrust attorney Seth Bloom remarked that the deal would probably face significant regulatory barriers, even under a Trump administration known for a more lenient enforcement stance. He emphasized that the administration prioritizes consumer financial interests, and such a merger could increase airlines’ pricing power.
It remains unclear whether United has formally approached American or initiated any merger process. Both airlines declined to comment, and the White House did not respond to inquiries. Following the news, American Airlines’ shares rose over 5% in after-hours trading, while United’s stock showed little change.
The U.S. airline industry is already highly concentrated, with American, Delta Air Lines, United, and Southwest Airlines each holding roughly 17% of domestic market share, Department of Transportation data. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy recently acknowledged potential room for consolidation but warned that any deal would undergo rigorous scrutiny regarding its effects on consumers.
Ganesh Sitaraman, director of the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator and author of “Why Flying Is Miserable,” stated that a merger between United and American would diminish competition, leading to higher ticket prices, increased fees, and fewer travel options.
American Airlines faces pressure to enhance profitability and narrow the gap with Delta and United, especially after unions criticized management earlier this year for underperformance. The airline anticipates a recovery in 2026, driven by strong premium demand and corporate travel. However, American carries approximately $25 billion in long-term debt—more than its larger competitors—limiting its financial flexibility amid high fuel costs.
Among the big four U.S. airlines, American is the smallest by market value at about $7 billion, compared to United’s $31 billion, Southwest’s $19 billion, and Delta’s $44 billion. Dennis Tajer, spokesperson for American’s pilots’ union, expressed concerns about the airline’s financial, operational, and customer service challenges.
Meanwhile, United has adopted a more optimistic stance as elevated fuel prices test the industry. Kirby suggested last month that prolonged cost pressures could create opportunities for stronger airlines to increase market share as weaker competitors struggle. Notably, Kirby previously served as American’s president from 2013 to 2016 but has historically downplayed the appeal of large acquisitions.
