Oil prices increased on Friday as skepticism grew regarding the likelihood of a ceasefire in the ongoing Iran conflict, now over a month old. Despite this rise, Brent crude was on track for its first weekly decline since February 9, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks that talks with Iran were progressing positively, though he provided no further details.
By 1:14 p.m. ET (1714 GMT), Brent crude futures had risen $3.51, or 3.3%, reaching $111.52 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures increased by $4.06, or 4.3%, to $98.54. Since February 27—the day before the U.S. and Israel initiated strikes against Iran—Brent crude has surged 53%, but it declined by over 0.5% this week. WTI, which has gained 45% since the conflict began, showed only a slight weekly increase.
Market participants remain cautious about President Trump’s optimistic statements on the Iran negotiations. An Iranian official described a U.S. proposal, reportedly delivered to Tehran via Pakistan, as “one-sided and unfair.”
Priyanka Sachdeva, an analyst at Phillip Nova, noted, “Despite discussions of de-escalation, oil trading reflects expectations of a prolonged conflict rather than just headlines. Any direct damage to oil infrastructure or an extended war could prompt a rapid upward adjustment in prices.”
While Trump extended his ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face destruction of its energy infrastructure, the U.S. has deployed thousands of additional troops to the Middle East. Trump is also considering the use of ground forces to capture Iran’s strategic oil hub, Kharg Island.
Ritterbusch & Associates, an oil trading advisory firm, commented that the market is likely to become desensitized to Trump’s conciliatory remarks and hopeful tone about a deal, especially given plans to send an extra 10,000 troops to the region.
The Iran conflict has removed approximately 11 million barrels per day from the global oil supply. The International Energy Agency has described the crisis as more severe than the combined oil shocks of the 1970s. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo emphasized, “Daily flows through the Strait remain limited, with over 10 million barrels of oil missing, further tightening the market.”
Analysts at Macquarie Group forecast that oil prices could decline rapidly if the conflict eases soon but would still stay above pre-war levels. Conversely, they warned prices might surge to $200 per barrel if the war continues through the end of June.
In a related development, Russian oil producers have cautioned buyers about the potential declaration of force majeure on shipments from key Baltic Sea ports following Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
