The escalating conflict between the United States and Iran is raising serious concerns about the availability of vital air defence missiles for Ukraine, which continues to endure relentless Russian missile strikes. With the US and Israel initiating military actions against Iran last Saturday, Tehran has responded by launching hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones targeting Gulf countries. Although many of these attacks have been successfully intercepted, including by the PAC-3 Patriot missile systems that Ukraine heavily depends on, the strain on missile supplies is becoming increasingly apparent.
Ukraine’s air defence relies significantly on the PAC-3 interceptors, produced by Lockheed Martin, to shield its energy and military infrastructure from ballistic missile threats. However, the annual production rate of approximately 600 PAC-3 units falls short of meeting the combined demands of the United States, its Gulf allies, and Ukraine itself. Serhii Kuzan, who leads the Kyiv-based Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center think tank, highlighted this shortfall, emphasizing the stark reality of wartime resource limitations. Adding to the challenge, the Franco-Italian SAMP/T air-defence system, which offers comparable capabilities, has not accelerated its production sufficiently to serve as an effective alternative.
Meanwhile, Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert and doctoral research fellow at Oslo University, noted that Gulf states have stockpiled Patriot missiles, which reduces the immediate risk of complete depletion. However, he warned that these countries might need to adopt a more selective approach in deploying their missile defences if the conflict with Iran prolongs. The situation could improve if US and Israeli forces succeed in destroying Iran’s missile stockpiles and launch facilities in the near future, Mykola Bielieskov from Kyiv’s National Institute for Strategic Studies. Yet, the ongoing intensity of Russian missile attacks on Ukraine, which have included over 700 missiles fired during this winter alone, continues to place immense pressure on Ukraine’s defensive resources.
Last month alone, Russia launched a staggering 32 ballistic missiles in a single night, underscoring the scale of the threat Ukraine faces. The majority of Patriots supplied to Ukraine come from European countries through the NATO-led Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), an initiative established last year to coordinate the procurement of US-made weapons for Ukraine. Since mid-February, Ukraine’s allies have pledged to deliver 37 PAC-3 missiles, reflecting ongoing international support. Italy, for its part, has explicitly ruled out diverting any of Ukraine’s air defence assets to assist Gulf states, maintaining its commitment to Ukraine’s security.
Despite these assurances, concerns persist among European diplomats that if the conflict with Iran drags on, delays in missile deliveries under the PURL framework could worsen. This is largely due to the United States’ own stockpiles being stretched thin. A senior US defense official acknowledged past production-related delays affecting PURL supplies and cautioned that these bottlenecks might intensify if the Iran conflict becomes prolonged. The official pointed out the inherent limitations in production capacity, stating, “We can only crank out so much at a time.” Although Lockheed Martin announced a plan in January to increase PAC-3 production to 2,000 units annually, this ramp-up will not be sufficient to alleviate shortages within the current year. The Pentagon has remained silent on specific questions regarding weapons shipments to Ukraine.
In the midst of these developments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned on Monday that a protracted and intense war involving Iran could further reduce the availability of air defence systems for Ukraine. He also highlighted Russia’s preparations for a new wave of attacks targeting Ukraine’s infrastructure, logistics networks, and water supplies. Zelenskiy has openly supported the US strikes on Iran, contrasting sharply with Moscow’s condemnation of the attacks on its ally. Meanwhile, former US President Donald Trump reiterated on Tuesday that ending the war in Ukraine remains a top priority for him, despite his previous pressure on Ukraine to reach a swift peace deal that might involve territorial concessions.
However, the anticipated new round of US-mediated peace talks in Abu Dhabi, scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, has been postponed due to Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Gulf states. No alternative venue for the negotiations has yet been announced. Experts like Yevhen Mahda from Kyiv’s Institute of World Policy suggest that a distracted US could face increased pressure from Russia to push Ukraine toward unfavorable peace terms. Nevertheless, Ukraine has firmly rejected any territorial concessions and has recently reclaimed more ground than it lost in February, marking a positive shift in momentum Finland-based security analysts at Black Bird Group.
As spring approaches, warmer temperatures may bring some relief to Ukrainians suffering from power outages caused by Russian drone and missile attacks. However, muddy conditions could slow any potential advances on the battlefield. Emil Kastehelmi of Black Bird Group emphasized that a significant decline in Ukraine’s air defence capabilities would force the military to make difficult strategic choices about what to protect, balancing the defence of energy infrastructure, industrial sites, and military bases.
Fabian Hoffmann stressed the importance of Ukraine developing offensive missile capabilities to target Russian missile production facilities deep inside Russian territory. He explained that missile defence should be viewed as a temporary measure until Ukraine can degrade the enemy’s offensive capacity. Currently, Ukraine’s long-range drones carry payloads too small to inflict substantial damage, underscoring the need for investment in more powerful missile systems. Although Trump hinted in October at the possibility of supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles, this plan never materialized due to Moscow’s warnings about the potential diplomatic fallout.
Last month, Ukraine demonstrated its growing offensive capabilities by striking a Russian missile factory—the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant in the remote Udmurtia region—using its domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile. This facility lies approximately 1,400 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, highlighting the expanding reach of Ukraine’s military operations. Hoffmann concluded that Ukraine must prioritize enhancing its offensive missile arsenal, as this represents the only sustainable path to countering Russia’s missile threat effectively.
