Russia’s key Baltic oil export terminals at Ust-Luga and Primorsk have been unable to process shipments for the second consecutive week due to a series of Ukrainian drone attacks. These assaults have inflicted significant damage on port infrastructure, disrupting operations and compelling Russian refineries to explore alternative export channels.
Over the last two weeks of March, Ust-Luga alone suffered at least five strikes within a 10-day span. The ongoing restrictions on exports, combined with interruptions at major refineries, risk causing a decline in Russia’s overall oil production. Since March 22, refineries have been unable to dispatch diesel fuel to Primorsk, depriving facilities in European Russia and Siberia of their primary export outlet.
One industry insider noted, “Diesel fuel shipments have not been accepted at Primorsk since Sunday, March 22. Authorities have assured that deliveries to the system will resume.” Meanwhile, traders report that refineries are increasingly reliant on more expensive rail transport to reach other export terminals.
Typically, refineries directing shipments to Ust-Luga have, over the past ten days, considered rerouting fuel oil exports to Vysotsk, located further north on the Gulf of Finland, or to Taman on the Black Sea coast. However, Vysotsk’s limited handling capacity and the need for additional railcars to service Taman pose logistical challenges.
Notably, Finnish maritime officials confirmed that shipments from Primorsk and Ust-Luga have plummeted from a weekly average of 40 to 50 vessels to just a few individual ships. This sharp decline underscores the significant impact of the attacks on Russia’s oil export capabilities.
