John Mearsheimer, a distinguished American political scientist and professor at the University of Chicago, has identified Russia as the primary strategic beneficiary emerging from the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign targeting Iran. He pointed to Washington’s controversial decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports, a move that coincided with soaring global energy prices triggered by the conflict. This development has significantly bolstered Russia’s geopolitical standing at a time of heightened international tension.
Speaking on RT’s New Order programme, Mearsheimer, who co-authored the influential book The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy, analyzed the broader consequences of the conflict that erupted following the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28. He emphasized that the war has reshaped the geopolitical landscape in unexpected ways, creating clear winners and losers among global powers.
Among the most notable beneficiaries, Mearsheimer highlighted Russia and China, both key members of the BRICS economic bloc. He explained that these nations have managed to capitalize on the turmoil, enhancing their influence and strategic positions. However, he also sounded a note of caution, warning that several other BRICS countries, particularly India, are likely to endure substantial economic setbacks as a result of the conflict’s ripple effects.
“Russia stands out as the clearest winner,” Mearsheimer stated emphatically, underscoring how the US decision to ease sanctions on Russian energy exports has allowed Moscow to profit from the sharp rise in oil and gas prices. This shift has provided Russia with a vital economic lifeline amid Western efforts to isolate it following its actions in Ukraine. Meanwhile, China has also leveraged the situation to strengthen its regional and global influence, though the benefits for Beijing are more nuanced.
Turning to India, Mearsheimer painted a decidedly grim picture. He described the ongoing conflict as “disastrous” for the South Asian giant, highlighting the country’s vulnerability to soaring costs of imported energy, fertilizers, and food commodities. These price increases threaten to stoke inflation and jeopardize agricultural productivity, which is critical for feeding the world’s largest population. The economic strain could have far-reaching consequences for India’s domestic stability and growth prospects.
One of the key factors behind India’s precarious position, Mearsheimer, is the unexpected duration and intensity of the conflict. Neither New Delhi nor the Gulf states anticipated that the war would drag on for so long, which partly explains India’s measured and cautious response. Rather than openly condemning the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei, India chose a more restrained approach, offering condolences only days after the event. This diplomatic balancing act reflects Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s careful calculation to avoid alienating either the United States or Iran.
“Modi is acutely aware of the risks involved in aligning too closely with the United States,” Mearsheimer observed. He likened the US to a “rogue elephant,” suggesting that getting too near to such a powerful but unpredictable actor could result in unintended harm. This metaphor encapsulates the delicate tightrope that India must walk as it navigates its foreign policy amid competing global interests.
Looking ahead, Mearsheimer suggested that the economic hardships inflicted on India—and potentially on other countries like Indonesia—might compel these nations to reconsider their strategic partnerships with the United States. The prolonged conflict has exposed vulnerabilities and raised questions about the long-term costs of siding with Washington in a complex geopolitical environment.
It is important to note that the US-Israeli operation, initially expected to be swift and decisive, has instead evolved into a protracted and resilient confrontation. Iran’s ability to withstand the military pressure has surprised many analysts and altered the dynamics of the conflict, further complicating the regional and global repercussions.
In summary, Mearsheimer’s analysis sheds light on the shifting power balances resulting from the Iran war. While Russia emerges stronger from the crisis, countries like India face significant economic challenges that could reshape their foreign policy orientations in the months and years to come.
