The Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passageway stretching 167 kilometers (104 miles) and serving as a crucial artery for global oil and gas shipments, has witnessed a dramatic decline in vessel traffic amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Since Iranian forces effectively blocked this strategic chokepoint following US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, the number of cargo ships and tankers navigating the strait has dwindled to a mere trickle, predominantly comprising Iranian-flagged vessels.
Data collected from March 1 to March 19 reveals a staggering 95 percent drop in shipping activity compared to normal peacetime levels. Analytics firm Kpler recorded only 116 crossings during this period, with oil tankers accounting for 71 of these voyages. Notably, more than half of these tankers were carrying cargo, and the majority were heading eastward, exiting the strait. This sharp reduction underscores the severe disruption to maritime trade routes that the ongoing conflict has caused.
Richard Meade, editor of the renowned shipping intelligence publication Lloyd’s List, highlighted that the current traffic is primarily dominated by bulk carriers, tankers, and container ships. He also pointed out a recent slight increase in the movement of gas carriers over the past week, indicating some shifts in the types of vessels attempting to transit the strait despite the volatile situation.
Ownership and flagging of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz have also shifted significantly. Bridget Diakun, an analyst with Lloyd’s List Intelligence, noted that most of the ships currently navigating the strait are either owned by or registered under Iranian flags. Following Iran, Greek vessels represent 18 percent of the crossings, while Chinese ships make up approximately 10 percent. This pattern reflects Iran’s continued control over the strait and its efforts to maintain oil exports, even as other international maritime traffic remains largely halted.
Adding to the complexity, more than one-third of the ships transiting the strait since the conflict began are subject to sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, or the United Kingdom. Among oil and gas tankers, over half are operating under such restrictions. Since March 16, westbound traffic has been dominated by what is known as the ‘shadow fleet’—a group of vessels including gas carriers and tankers that operate under the radar to circumvent sanctions and maintain limited trade flows.
JPMorgan commodities analysts have reported that the bulk of the oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asian markets, with China being the primary recipient. Cichen Shen, Asia Pacific editor at Lloyd’s List, mentioned indications that Chinese authorities are actively working on contingency plans to facilitate the exit of their large tankers currently stranded in the region. This highlights the strategic importance of the strait not only to Iran but also to major global consumers of energy.
JPMorgan’s analysis, approximately 98 percent of the observable oil traffic through the strait in early March consisted of Iranian crude, averaging around 1.3 million barrels per day. This is particularly significant given that, under normal circumstances, about 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies transit this narrow waterway, underscoring the strait’s critical role in global energy security.
Interestingly, some vessels from India and Pakistan have been observed transiting the strait under what appears to be Iranian approval. Marine consultancy Clarksons reported that certain ships are navigating routes closer to the Iranian coastline than usual, likely as part of a controlled corridor. Richard Meade further explained that several governments—including China, India, Pakistan, Iraq, and Malaysia—are engaged in direct negotiations with Tehran to coordinate the safe passage of their vessels, often involving Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
Lloyd’s List has identified at least nine ships that have utilized an Iranian-sanctioned maritime corridor near Larak Island, situated close to Iran’s coast, where vessels undergo vetting by Iranian authorities. This development reflects Tehran’s tightening grip on maritime traffic through the strait, as well as the broader geopolitical complexities influencing navigation in one of the world’s most strategically sensitive waterways.
