In a recent presentation before the Senate Intelligence Committee, the US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, identified Pakistan as one of several countries that pose an escalating strategic threat due to their advancing missile capabilities. She emphasized that Islamabad’s ongoing development of long-range ballistic missiles could eventually place the American mainland within striking distance, marking a significant shift in regional and global security dynamics.
Gabbard’s remarks came as part of the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, which also spotlighted Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea as nations actively pursuing new missile delivery technologies. These countries are reportedly enhancing their arsenals with both nuclear and conventional warheads, thereby expanding the range and sophistication of their missile forces. The intelligence chief underscored that while the United States maintains a robust nuclear deterrent designed to protect the homeland from strategic attacks, the rapid evolution of missile systems abroad is challenging this security environment.
Specifically addressing Pakistan, Gabbard noted that the country’s ballistic missile program is progressing toward capabilities that might include intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Such weapons would represent a major leap, potentially enabling Pakistan to target locations far beyond its immediate neighborhood, including the US mainland. This development is particularly concerning given the traditionally regional focus of Pakistan’s strategic posture.
Moreover, the report projected a sharp increase in global missile inventories over the coming decade. Current estimates place the worldwide stockpile at over 3,000 missiles, but this number could surge to more than 16,000 by 2035. The intelligence community anticipates that the countries mentioned will closely monitor US missile defense strategies to tailor their own programs accordingly, seeking to undermine Washington’s deterrence capabilities.
In response to these assertions, former Pakistani ambassador to the United States, Jalil Abbas Jilani, firmly dismissed the notion that Pakistan represents a direct missile threat to America. He reiterated that Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine remains firmly focused on deterring India, rather than projecting power globally. Jilani emphasized that Islamabad’s strategic calculations are rooted in regional security concerns, particularly the complex and often volatile relationship with its neighbor.
Adding to the debate, Turkish security analyst Shaqeq-ud-Din questioned the validity of the US assessment. He pointed out that Pakistan currently lacks operational intercontinental ballistic missiles, suggesting that the threat may be overstated. Instead, he highlighted India’s expanding ICBM capabilities, which he claimed are growing with external assistance. Shaqeq-ud-Din criticized the selective nature of threat classifications, urging for a more balanced evaluation of missile developments across all countries.
The threat assessment also drew attention to South Asia as a persistent hotspot for security challenges, particularly the fraught relationship between Pakistan and India. The report underscored the ongoing risk of nuclear conflict between these two nuclear-armed neighbors, referencing their history of military confrontations and the potential for escalation. It cited the Pahalgam attack as a recent example that nearly triggered a full-scale war, highlighting the fragile nature of peace in the region.
While the report acknowledged efforts to de-escalate tensions—such as former President Donald Trump’s intervention during the most recent crisis—it warned that neither country desires open conflict. However, it noted that the presence of terrorist groups continues to fuel instability and could serve as a catalyst for future crises. This underscores the complex interplay between state and non-state actors in South Asia’s security landscape.
Furthermore, the document addressed the volatile situation along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, where relations between Islamabad and the Taliban remain strained. Cross-border clashes have occurred intermittently, reflecting Islamabad’s growing frustration with anti-Pakistan militant groups operating from Afghan territory. The report highlighted statements from Pakistan’s army chief, who recently stressed that sustainable peace hinges on the Taliban severing ties with militants targeting Pakistan.
Despite the Taliban’s public calls for dialogue, they have consistently denied harboring anti-Pakistani militants, maintaining a complex and often contradictory stance. This ongoing tension contributes to the broader security challenges faced by Pakistan, as it grapples with both internal terrorist violence and external threats emanating from its western frontier. The report’s insights paint a picture of a region where diplomatic efforts, military postures, and militant activities intersect in ways that continue to shape the strategic calculus of all involved parties.
