In confidential discussions, Israeli officials have admitted that there is no assured outcome that the ongoing war against Iran will result in the downfall of its clerical leadership. A senior Israeli figure revealed that despite the relentless military campaign, there remains no clear indication of a popular uprising within Iran, even as airstrikes continue to target key locations. This cautious assessment contrasts with some public statements suggesting a swift conclusion to the conflict.
While U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly hinted that the war might soon reach its end, Israel’s evaluation suggests that Washington is not yet prepared to call off the hostilities. Two Israeli officials emphasized that the United States has not moved toward signaling an imminent cessation of military operations. The combined U.S.-Israeli air offensive has inflicted heavy damage, including the deaths of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several senior military commanders. However, the campaign has also resulted in significant civilian casualties and widespread destruction of residential areas and public infrastructure, fueling anger and resentment among the Iranian population.
Missile strikes have rained down on Tehran and other major cities, while Iranian authorities have issued stern warnings threatening lethal force against anyone attempting to protest. This atmosphere of fear has likely deterred many Iranians from taking to the streets, despite underlying discontent. The government’s harsh crackdown on earlier protests in January, which resulted in thousands of deaths, remains fresh in the public memory. At the same time, Iran faces mounting economic challenges, exacerbated by increasingly stringent sanctions that have crippled its economy and left little hope for immediate relief.
Israel’s senior official did not elaborate on the specific factors shaping the conclusion that Iran’s ruling system might endure despite the war. On the initial day of the joint U.S.-Israeli air campaign, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed hope that their actions would empower Iran’s diverse ethnic minorities—including Kurds, Baluchis, and Arabs—to rise up and reclaim their future. This echoed earlier speculation that the U.S. and Israel might support uprisings among these groups. Yet, Netanyahu’s recent statements have tempered expectations, acknowledging that while Israel desires to see Iranians free from tyranny, any such change ultimately depends on the Iranian people themselves. This reflects a recognition that a popular revolt does not appear imminent under current conditions.
Notably, Israel and the United States have refrained from issuing a joint public declaration outlining clear war objectives or specifying the criteria for ending the campaign. President Trump described the conflict as “very complete, pretty much,” but the White House clarified that the war would continue until Iran surrenders unconditionally and U.S. goals are fully achieved. In a closed briefing with foreign diplomats, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar declined to provide a timeline for the military operation, aligning with the government’s view that the conflict is far from over. Saar acknowledged the possibility that Iran’s regime could survive the war but expressed confidence that it might eventually collapse in the longer term.
Speaking to the press, Saar emphasized that hostilities would persist until both Israel and the U.S. agreed it was time to stop, while stressing that Israel does not seek an endless war. Military strategist Assaf Orion, formerly head of strategy for the Israeli military, noted that degrading Iran’s military capabilities remains a more tangible and measurable objective than forcing regime change, which is inherently indirect and unpredictable. He pointed out that while the air campaign may have been planned over weeks, any internal uprising against Iran’s government could take months or even years to materialize.
Meanwhile, on the ground in Tehran, the atmosphere is tense and subdued. Iran’s police chief, Ahmadreza Radan, issued a stark warning that anyone protesting at the behest of foreign enemies would be treated as an adversary rather than a peaceful demonstrator, with security forces ready to use lethal force. Despite widespread dissatisfaction with the regime and some public celebrations following Khamenei’s death, no significant protests have erupted since the conflict began. A 26-year-old Tehran resident named Ali expressed his frustration, saying, “I hate this regime. I want it to go, but under bombardment there are no streets left to protest in.”
Although the city’s streets are quieter than usual, daily life continues with banks, petrol stations, and shops operating, albeit with reduced hours and stricter fuel rationing. Government offices remain open despite the ongoing bombardment. Another Tehran resident, speaking anonymously due to fear of reprisals, described how the constant explosions shake apartment buildings and windows. This individual also noted a growing sense of Iranian patriotism and resentment not only toward the regime but also toward figures like Reza Pahlavi—the son of Iran’s former shah—as well as foreign leaders such as Trump and Netanyahu, who have advocated military intervention.
The extensive bombing has severely damaged Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including airports and ports, compounding the difficulties the government faces in revitalizing an already stagnant economy. A university professor in Tehran, who also requested anonymity, suggested that the Iranian leadership might prefer the continuation of the war, as ending it could trigger widespread protests fueled by economic hardships and social grievances that have only worsened during the conflict. This complex interplay of military pressure, economic sanctions, and internal dissent paints a challenging picture for Iran’s future stability.
