The Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) has released its preliminary forecast for the date of Eid ul Fitr in 2026, suggesting that the festival will most likely be observed on Saturday, March 21. This projection is grounded in meticulous astronomical calculations concerning the birth and visibility of the Shawwal moon, which marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan and the beginning of the Islamic month of Shawwal.
SUPARCO’s detailed analysis, the new moon of Shawwal will be born on March 19 at precisely 6:23 a.m. local time. By the time the sun sets on the same day, the moon will be approximately 12 hours and 41 minutes old. This age is a critical factor in determining whether the crescent moon can be sighted with the naked eye, which traditionally signals the start of Eid celebrations. However, the agency has noted that the chances of spotting the Shawwal crescent on the evening of March 19 are quite slim, especially in most parts of Pakistan.
Further observations indicate that along Pakistan’s coastal regions, the interval between sunset and moonset on March 19 will be around 28 minutes. While this time gap might seem sufficient for moon sighting, SUPARCO cautions that the crescent’s visibility remains unlikely due to the moon’s young age and position relative to the horizon. As a result, the agency anticipates that the first day of Shawwal 1447 AH will fall on March 21, 2026, which will be celebrated as Eid ul Fitr across Pakistan.
It is important to highlight that while SUPARCO provides scientific predictions based on astronomical data, the official confirmation of the moon sighting and the declaration of Eid’s commencement rest with the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee. This committee holds the religious authority to announce the start of Islamic months in Pakistan, relying on actual moon sighting reports and traditional criteria in addition to scientific calculations.
Meanwhile, in the Gulf region, the Al-Ujairi Scientific Center in Kuwait has also shared its findings regarding the Shawwal moon. The center has stated that the crescent will not be visible on the evening of Wednesday, March 18, 2026, which corresponds to the 29th day of Ramadan 1447 AH. Their experts have used precise astronomical calculations and global lunar maps to determine that the moon will set before the sun on that day, making it impossible to sight the crescent over Kuwait and most other countries.
The center further explained that the new moon conjunction will occur at approximately 4:23 a.m. on Thursday, March 19, Kuwait time, which is after sunset on the observation day. This timing means that Ramadan will complete a full 30 days, with Thursday, March 19, expected to be the last day of fasting. Consequently, Friday, March 20, 2026, is anticipated to mark the first day of Eid ul Fitr in Kuwait.
Both SUPARCO and the Al-Ujairi Scientific Center emphasize that while astronomical data provides valuable guidance, the official start of Islamic months is ultimately determined by authorized religious bodies following established Shariah-compliant moon sighting procedures. This blend of science and tradition continues to play a central role in how Muslim communities around the world observe important religious dates such as Eid ul Fitr.
