Pakistan has expressed serious apprehensions regarding India’s ambitious plans to invest nearly $60 billion in constructing extensive storage facilities along the Jhelum and Chenab rivers. These two rivers are part of the western tributaries allocated to Pakistan under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, a landmark agreement governing the sharing of water resources between the two countries. Islamabad fears that the expansion of upstream reservoirs could give New Delhi the ability to manipulate river flows, potentially causing severe drought conditions during Pakistan’s critical agricultural seasons or triggering sudden floods during the monsoon period.
During a high-level federal-provincial dialogue on water storage held on February 17, the Chairman of the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), retired Lieutenant General Muhammad Saeed, highlighted the gravity of the situation. He informed attendees that India’s proposed infrastructure projects would dramatically increase its storage capacity on the Jhelum and Chenab rivers from the current level of approximately 15 days’ worth of water storage to an estimated 55 to 60 days. This represents a significant leap in India’s ability to control and regulate water flow upstream.
One participant at the meeting warned that such an increase in storage capacity would provide India with a substantial window—nearly two months—to halt or drastically reduce the normal flow of water downstream. This timing could coincide with Pakistan’s peak irrigation needs, potentially leading to drought-like conditions across vital agricultural zones. The participant emphasized that the implications for Pakistan’s food security and rural livelihoods could be severe if water supplies are deliberately or inadvertently restricted during these crucial periods.
Moreover, the official pointed out that the enlarged reservoirs would also enable India to release large volumes of stored water at short notice. Pakistan has already experienced flood-like situations caused by India’s current storage capacity of 15 days. With a fourfold increase, the risk of sudden and poorly timed water releases during heavy rainfall or the monsoon season could become far more dangerous, raising the potential for devastating floods downstream.
In response to these developments, Pakistani authorities are advocating for the accelerated construction of large-scale domestic reservoirs. These projects aim to capture excess floodwaters that currently flow unused into the sea, provide a buffer against sudden upstream water releases, and store water for periods when river flows are reduced. The WAPDA chairman stressed the urgent need to develop new flood-control reservoirs to conserve surplus water and protect the country from potential upstream shocks, describing India’s growing storage capacity as a looming existential threat to Pakistan’s water security and agricultural stability.
The February 17 meeting was chaired by Water Resources Minister Mian Moeen Wattoo and included the participation of the prime minister of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and the chief minister of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). Notably, provincial chief ministers were absent, despite directives from the prime minister for chief secretaries and irrigation secretaries to attend. This absence highlighted emerging divisions among federal and provincial stakeholders regarding the best approach to Pakistan’s dam-building strategy.
Representatives from Sindh voiced concerns that Pakistan is already facing significant water shortages, arguing that current river flows do not justify the construction of large dams. They pointed out that lower-riparian areas are struggling to secure adequate drinking water even under existing conditions. Sindh officials cautioned that additional upstream storage could exacerbate these shortages and called for comprehensive feasibility and economic studies before proceeding with new projects. Their reservations implicitly referenced the technical and financial difficulties encountered during the Neelum–Jhelum Hydropower Project, underscoring the need for careful planning.
Meanwhile, voices from Gilgit-Baltistan pressed for greater inclusion in national water governance, requesting that GB be granted membership or at least observer status in the Indus River System Authority. This would ensure that the region, which is a key source area for the western rivers, has a formal role in shaping Pakistan’s water policies. The prime minister of Azad Jammu and Kashmir expressed strong support for further dams, storage facilities, and hydropower projects within Kashmir. However, he emphasized that local communities must receive tangible financial benefits to foster their support and ensure they share in the gains from their region’s contribution to national water and energy security.
Punjab province signaled full backing for new flood-storage initiatives and offered to engage directly with Sindh to address its concerns, proposing institutional safeguards to protect provincial interests. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also urged the early implementation of the Chashma Right Bank Canal lift-cum-gravity scheme, highlighting that delays have prevented the province from fully utilizing its allocated water share. The WAPDA chairman reassured participants that tenders for the project have been issued and that it will be prioritized moving forward.
Separately, WAPDA has finalized plans to construct four medium-sized storage reservoirs on the Chenab River near Jhang, Chiniot, Sargodha, and Wazirabad. These projects, with a combined estimated cost of Rs300 billion, are expected to provide a total storage capacity of around 4.5 million acre-feet. This initiative forms part of Pakistan’s broader strategy to enhance its water storage infrastructure amid growing upstream developments on the western rivers.
As India accelerates its storage projects on the Jhelum and Chenab, Pakistan’s dialogue on water management reflects an increasing sense of urgency to expand domestic reservoirs and bolster resilience against potential disruptions. The evolving situation underscores the critical importance of the Indus Waters Treaty framework and the need for sustained cooperation to safeguard water security in the region.
