OPEC+ is reportedly contemplating a substantial increase in oil production beyond the initially planned 411,000 barrels per day during their upcoming meeting on Sunday. This potential decision follows recent moves by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to raise their oil exports, a strategic response to growing concerns over possible disruptions in the oil market triggered by recent US-Israeli military actions against Iran on Saturday.
The coalition, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) alongside allied producers such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman, is set to convene at 1100 GMT to discuss production adjustments. These eight members play a critical role in balancing global oil supply, especially amid geopolitical tensions that threaten the stability of Middle Eastern energy exports.
Despite early expectations that an oversupply of crude oil would suppress prices, the market has instead seen a steady rise in oil prices this year. This trend is largely driven by fears that escalating conflict between Iran and the United States could severely disrupt oil shipments through the vital Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global energy trade. Notably, oil prices surged to $73 per barrel on Friday, marking the highest level since July, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments.
Prior to the recent escalation, delegates from the eight OPEC+ countries had anticipated agreeing to a modest output increase of around 137,000 barrels per day for April. This planned adjustment was intended to accommodate the expected rise in demand during the upcoming summer months, particularly with the US driving season approaching. The modest hike would also have ended a three-month pause in production increases, reflecting a cautious approach amid uncertain market conditions.
However, new information from insiders suggests that the group is now considering a much larger boost in production, potentially tripling the original figure to 411,000 barrels per day. There is even speculation that the increase could be as high as 548,000 barrels daily, signaling a significant shift in OPEC+ strategy to stabilize the market and counterbalance supply risks.
Evidence indicates that some of the region’s largest oil producers have already begun ramping up exports in anticipation of potential disruptions. Abu Dhabi, a major oil producer within the UAE, is expected to increase shipments of its flagship Murban crude in April. Similarly, Saudi Arabia has reportedly escalated its oil production and exports as part of a contingency plan designed to mitigate the impact of any conflict-related supply interruptions.
Earlier this year, the eight OPEC+ members collectively raised their production quotas by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day, covering the period from April through December 2025. This increase represents roughly 3% of the global oil demand. However, they decided to pause further output hikes from January to March 2026 due to expected seasonal declines in consumption. The upcoming meeting and potential production decisions will be closely watched by global markets, as they reflect the delicate balance OPEC+ must maintain between supply security and price stability amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
