The global nuclear arsenal is expanding and undergoing significant modernisation as countries increasingly view nuclear weapons as key instruments of national power, reversing decades of disarmament efforts, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) revealed in its 2026 annual assessment.
The report details that the nine nuclear-armed nations—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—continued to enhance their nuclear capabilities through 2025, with most introducing new nuclear-capable delivery systems.
Out of an estimated total of 12,187 nuclear warheads worldwide as of January 2026, about 9,745 remain in military stockpiles ready for potential deployment. Approximately 4,012 of these warheads are actively deployed on missiles and aircraft, with over 2,100 maintained at high operational alert levels.
Russia and the US still hold roughly 83 percent of all deployable nuclear warheads, though their combined share is gradually decreasing due to the expansion of arsenals in other countries.
While the post-Cold War era was marked by a steady decline in nuclear weapons, this trend appears to be reversing as the pace of new nuclear deployments accelerates globally.
In South Asia, the nuclear landscape is characterized by a steady growth in capabilities alongside evolving strategic priorities. India increased its nuclear stockpile to 190 warheads in 2025, up from about 172 in 2024 and 164 in 2023. New Delhi’s modernisation efforts focus on developing long-range delivery systems capable of reaching targets across China, while maintaining its traditional strategic focus on Pakistan.
Notably, the report indicates that India and China may now occasionally deploy a limited number of warheads on missiles during peacetime, signaling a shift in operational posture.
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal remained stable at approximately 170 warheads between 2023 and 2025. However, Islamabad continues to advance new delivery technologies and increase fissile material production, trends that SIPRI projects could lead to an expanded arsenal over the next decade.
The report also highlights a brief armed conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025, during which India targeted Pakistani air and missile bases likely linked to nuclear operations. Although both sides quickly took measures to prevent escalation, SIPRI Director Karim Haggag cautioned that such incidents challenge the traditional logic of nuclear deterrence.
Meanwhile, China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country, with its stockpile estimated to have reached 620 warheads.
This growth in nuclear capabilities is occurring amid a significant breakdown in global arms control frameworks and increased strategic opacity. The bilateral New START treaty between the US and Russia expired in February 2026, casting uncertainty over future strategic force levels between the two largest nuclear powers.
Adding to the risks, the global non-proliferation regime is under unprecedented strain. The 2026 Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which concluded on 22 May, marked the third consecutive review cycle to end without a final consensus document.
SIPRI experts warn that the erosion of diplomatic engagement, declining transparency, and a shift toward strategic ambiguity among nuclear-armed states are fueling global instability.
“The risks linked to nuclear weapons are intensifying due to technological advances, the collapse of arms control agreements, and rising geopolitical tensions,” Haggag stated. He added that current geopolitical dynamics are creating a self-reinforcing cycle of vulnerability that threatens long-term strategic stability worldwide.
