The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a heatwave alert, signaling a notable increase in temperatures across parts of the country in the upcoming days. Mild heatwave conditions are forecasted to develop in southern regions from April 29 through May 3.
Currently, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) indicators remain neutral, yet most plain areas are expected to face extreme heat. There is a 61% probability that El Nino conditions could emerge between May and July, potentially impacting regional weather patterns.
Temperatures are projected to rise significantly in South Punjab, Upper Sindh, and Balochistan, with the mercury predicted to remain four to six degrees Celsius above average. In these plains, temperatures may soar between 43°C and 45°C. The Met Office has advised the public to limit sun exposure, especially during peak hours, to avoid heat-related health issues.
Health professionals have cautioned that the heatwave could heighten health risks, particularly for vulnerable groups such as the elderly, children, and patients, emphasizing the importance of precautionary measures.
Meanwhile, northern areas of the country are expected to remain relatively cooler due to the influence of westerly weather systems. These systems are anticipated to affect the region from the night of April 27 to April 29 and again between May 3 and May 5, bringing temperature drops of two to four degrees Celsius during these intervals.
Despite this temporary relief, officials warn that heat intensity will likely increase again after May 1, with intermittent heatwave episodes persisting. Historical climatological data indicate that May and June are usually the hottest months in Pakistan, especially in South Punjab, Upper Sindh, and southern and eastern Balochistan, where temperatures can occasionally reach as high as 52°C during severe heatwaves. Normally, temperatures in these areas range from 43°C to 45°C.
Recent observations reveal that temperatures in these heat-prone zones are currently running two to four degrees Celsius above normal, underscoring the heightened risk of heat stress in the coming weeks.
