U.S. President Donald Trump is embarking on a campaign-style tour through the battleground states of Nevada and Arizona this week, aiming to counteract growing economic concerns and the declining political outlook for the Republican Party. The ongoing conflict with Iran has driven gasoline prices upward, complicating the economic landscape.
During a Thursday event in Las Vegas, Trump plans to promote his tax and immigration legislation, which includes targeted promises to appeal to hourly and hospitality workers. However, surging costs across the country—from fuel to groceries, housing, and insurance—have unsettled the U.S. economy and weakened Trump’s influence in rallying support for conservative candidates ahead of November’s midterm elections.
Several Republican strategists express worry that the White House has lost control over the affordability narrative, diminishing the positive momentum generated by the tax bill and a resilient economy that has withstood trade tensions and military actions. David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, noted that the rising cost of living will overshadow any minor tax return benefits.
Meanwhile, some of Trump’s advisers remain optimistic, anticipating a forthcoming agreement with Iran to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz, which could ease economic anxieties before the midterms. White House spokesman Kush Desai emphasized that Trump has been transparent about the short-term economic impact of the Iran conflict and highlighted the tax benefits as evidence of the administration’s continued focus on affordability.
Nonetheless, restarting oil production after hostilities cease could take weeks, and elevated fuel prices are likely to sustain inflation across various consumer goods and services. This situation poses significant risks for Republicans, who face a challenging reelection landscape in both the House and Senate.
the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Democrats are favored to gain control of the House, while key Senate races in North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and even conservative Nebraska are trending toward Democrats. Trump’s approval rating dropped to 36% in a late-March poll, marking a low point in his second term. Nevada and Arizona remain competitive with important Senate and House contests.
On Friday, Trump is expected to attend an event hosted by conservative group Turning Point USA in Phoenix. Republican lawmakers had hoped that provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—a $4.1 trillion agenda passed last year, including no taxes on tips or overtime wages—would resonate with voters seeking economic relief. However, one Republican strategist consulting on congressional races remarked that this advantage appears to have been erased.
The party’s challenges have been compounded recently by Trump’s focus on the Iran conflict, a public dispute with Pope Leo, and criticism over a social media post depicting himself in religious imagery resembling Jesus Christ. In response to growing concerns about midterm prospects, the White House has assigned senior adviser James Blair to assist with campaign efforts.
During his West Coast swing, Trump will host a roundtable on Thursday highlighting the elimination of federal taxes on tips, a policy designed to benefit service workers in a city heavily reliant on hospitality jobs. Supporters argue this will increase take-home pay for restaurant, hotel, and casino employees who depend on gratuities. The 2025 tax law allows eligible workers to deduct up to $25,000 in tip income from federal taxes, although payroll taxes still apply and the benefit phases out for higher earners. Approximately 4 million Americans work in tipped positions, with average annual benefits estimated at around $1,400 for qualifying individuals.
More than 53 million tax filers claimed at least one of Trump’s signature tax cuts this filing season, with the average refund exceeding $3,400, White House figures. Despite these gains, gas prices remain a significant vulnerability. Trump has delivered mixed messages about the duration of elevated fuel costs, at times suggesting prolonged hardship due to global supply disruptions, while also expressing hope for a sharp decline once the conflict ends.
The administration’s options to reduce energy prices are limited, largely relying on complex diplomatic efforts related to the Strait of Hormuz. Measures taken include releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, adjusting shipping regulations, and easing sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil. Yet, global oil prices remain above $90 per barrel. An oil executive involved in discussions noted that only unfavorable options remain, which the White House has been urged to avoid.
Trump has sought to manage expectations by framing midterm losses as typical for the party in power, while asserting confidence that his administration can reverse this trend. Speaking on Fox Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria,” he acknowledged the historical pattern but emphasized efforts to turn the situation around. He stressed the importance of communicating to voters the administration’s accomplishments, arguing there is no reason for Republicans to lose.
