Recent intelligence assessments from the United States indicate that Iran is unlikely to relinquish its control over the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. This strategic waterway, crucial for global oil transportation, remains Tehran’s primary leverage against the United States amid ongoing tensions. The reports highlight Tehran’s potential to sustain disruptions in the strait, thereby keeping energy prices elevated as a pressure tactic against U.S. President Donald Trump, who faces domestic opposition to the nearly five-week-long conflict.
In a significant development, the intelligence suggests that the conflict, initially aimed at dismantling Iran’s military capabilities, may inadvertently enhance Tehran’s regional influence by demonstrating its capacity to threaten this vital maritime passage. Despite the challenges, Trump has downplayed the difficulty of reopening the strait, which facilitates about one-fifth of the world’s oil trade. On Friday, he implied that U.S. forces could be ordered to secure the passage, stating on his social media platform that with additional time, the U.S. could “open the Hormuz Strait, take the oil, and make a fortune.”
However, analysts caution that any military attempt to forcefully reopen the strait could be costly and risk drawing the U.S. into an extended ground conflict. Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, remarked that in efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring weapons of mass destruction, the U.S. inadvertently handed Iran a powerful tool of disruption. Vaez emphasized that Iran’s control over the strait wields influence over global energy markets that surpasses even the threat of nuclear weapons.
Trump’s position on U.S. involvement in reopening the strait has fluctuated. While he has made ending Iran’s blockade a condition for ceasefire talks, he has also urged Gulf countries and NATO allies to take the lead in resolving the issue. A White House official expressed confidence that the strait would reopen soon and affirmed that Iran would not be permitted to regulate maritime traffic post-conflict. Nonetheless, the official acknowledged that other nations have greater stakes in preventing Iran’s control over the waterway.
Since the conflict began on February 28, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, despite being outgunned, has employed various tactics to disrupt commercial shipping through the strait. These include attacks on civilian vessels, deploying mines, and demanding passage fees, effectively blocking transit and driving oil prices to multi-year highs. This disruption has led to fuel shortages in countries dependent on Gulf oil and gas, raising concerns about inflation in the U.S. and posing political challenges for Trump ahead of the November mid-term elections.
The intelligence reports warn that Iran is unlikely to surrender this strategic advantage soon, with sources noting that Tehran has recognized the power it holds over the strait. Experts highlight the significant risks involved in any military operation to reopen the waterway. The strait, which narrows to just two miles in each shipping lane between Iran and Oman, makes vessels and military forces vulnerable to attacks. Even if U.S. forces were to seize parts of the southern Iranian coast and nearby islands, the IRGC could continue to disrupt traffic using drones and missiles launched from within Iran.
Vaez explained that only a few drones could effectively deter shipping traffic. Some analysts believe that even after the conflict, Iran will maintain its ability to regulate passage through the strait, potentially charging fees to fund reconstruction efforts. Former CIA Director Bill Burns noted that Iran aims to preserve this leverage to secure long-term deterrence and security guarantees in any peace negotiations with the U.S., while also obtaining material benefits such as passage fees to support post-war recovery. He described this situation as setting the stage for complex and challenging negotiations ahead.
