Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is urgently working to approve the state budget and prevent early elections that he is likely to lose. Despite the ongoing conflict with Iran, his popularity in the polls has seen little improvement. Initially, Netanyahu’s camp viewed the war’s outbreak—which included the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—as an opportunity to call snap elections ahead of the expected October date.
One mechanism to trigger early elections would be the failure to pass the budget by March 31, which under Israeli law would lead to a vote within 90 days. Following a series of U.S.-Israeli strikes that eliminated several senior Iranian figures, some of Netanyahu’s allies publicly suggested holding elections as soon as June. However, nearly four weeks into the conflict, which has yet to achieve its goal of toppling Iran’s clerical leadership, Netanyahu is now focused on avoiding an early vote.
Efforts to secure parliamentary approval for the budget have included allocating funds to political allies and fast-tracking the bill through the Finance Committee to meet the looming deadline. Netanyahu has consistently rejected calls for early elections during wartime, emphasizing the importance of government stability. On March 12, he urged his coalition partners to act responsibly and approve the defense-heavy $225 billion budget, expressing hope that elections would occur as scheduled in September or October.
While the war has shifted public attention from Gaza to the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran—a cause with broad national support—polls show little change in voter preferences since Hamas’ surprise attack on October 7, 2023. Netanyahu’s coalition of nationalist and religious parties maintains about 40% support, matched by opposition parties, with no significant swing toward Netanyahu, political analyst Gideon Rahat of Hebrew University.
Despite widespread backing for the war’s objectives, Israelis are growing weary as the conflict drags on without a clear resolution. Rahat noted a pattern of intermittent fighting followed by quiet periods, contributing to public fatigue. A March 19 poll indicated Netanyahu’s Likud party would secure 28 of the 120 Knesset seats, down from 34, with the coalition falling short of a majority at 51 seats.
Earlier in March, Israeli Science Minister and Likud member Gila Gamliel suggested elections might be held in late June or early July, a view echoed by senior party figures. Yet, as the war approaches its fifth week, the likelihood of a summer election seems increasingly unlikely. Rahat described Netanyahu’s current approach as a strategy to buy time.
The economic impact of the Iran war is significant, with schools closed and workplaces partially operational, costing the economy an estimated five billion shekels ($1.6 billion) weekly. Defense spending has surged, with an additional 32 billion shekels approved since the conflict began. This rise in military expenditure limits resources available to satisfy demands from key parliamentary allies, including ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties who exited the government in 2025.
These parties had threatened to oppose the budget unless legislation exempting ultra-Orthodox men from mandatory military service was finalized—a longstanding issue straining Netanyahu’s coalition since 2023. However, after the government allocated approximately five billion shekels for ultra-Orthodox schools this month, the threat appears to have been withdrawn. Representatives from Shas and United Torah Judaism did not comment on the matter.
Opposition member Vladimir Beliak, serving on the Finance Committee, criticized the government’s budget allocations as prioritizing coalition survival over equitable resource distribution. Adding to Netanyahu’s political difficulties is his ongoing corruption trial on charges of fraud, bribery, and breach of trust, which he denies. With backing from former U.S. President Donald Trump, Netanyahu has requested a pardon from Israeli President Isaac Herzog. Such a mid-trial pardon would be unprecedented and has faced opposition from Israel’s justice system.
(Exchange rate: $1 = 3.1192 shekels)
