Max Verstappen has long considered the Japanese Grand Prix one of his favorite races, but this year his hopes of securing a fifth consecutive victory at Suzuka appear increasingly unlikely. Red Bull’s struggles under Formula One’s sweeping new regulations have left the four-time world champion fighting to keep pace.
Mercedes has emerged as the dominant force so far this season, with George Russell and rookie Kimi Antonelli delivering impressive performances. Both drivers have claimed one-two finishes in the opening rounds, positioning themselves as the main contenders at Suzuka. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton are expected to be the closest challengers to Mercedes’ early supremacy.
Red Bull’s difficulties have been stark. Verstappen’s campaign began with a sixth-place finish in Australia after a qualifying crash, followed by a ninth-place sprint finish and a retirement in Shanghai due to a cooling issue. His frustration with the 2026 regulations, which introduce electrical boosts and overtake modes, has been vocal, describing the new format as “anti-racing” and likening it to a Mario Kart game.
In an attempt to shift momentum, Verstappen competed in a four-hour race in Germany last weekend but was disqualified despite crossing the finish line first. His dominance at Suzuka, where he clinched his second world title in 2022 and won the last four editions, now seems under serious threat.
“Getting on top of our problems is not easy,” Verstappen admitted after the Shanghai race. “It would help if we would just have a normal start — I’ve been every time dropping to last.”
Meanwhile, Mercedes continues to build on its strong start. Russell won the Australian Grand Prix and the Shanghai sprint, while 19-year-old Antonelli celebrated his maiden victory in China, becoming the youngest pole-sitter in F1 history and the second-youngest race winner after Verstappen. Antonelli’s triumph was warmly received in his hometown of Bologna, Italy, where he described the win as a confidence booster that lifted a weight off his shoulders.
In contrast, McLaren has faced a difficult beginning to the season under the new hybrid regulations requiring balanced battery management and energy harvesting. Defending champion Lando Norris, who has openly criticized his car’s performance, trails Russell by 36 points. His teammate Oscar Piastri has yet to start a race this year after crashing en route to the grid in Melbourne.
“We just have to take it on the chin, learn what the problem was and make sure it never happens again,” Norris said in Shanghai. “All of us want to go racing and score points.”
Looking ahead, teams will have a chance to regroup after Suzuka, as the calendar includes a five-week break before the Miami Grand Prix. The Bahrain and Saudi Arabia rounds were canceled due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, adding further uncertainty to the season’s rhythm.
