Karachi, 25 March 2026 – The Pakistani rupee showed a slight appreciation during Tuesday’s trading session, with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) setting the USD/PKR mark-to-market rate at Rs 279.2113. This figure is one paisa lower than the previous close and marks the narrowest level recorded in 2026 so far.
The US dollar remained anchored near 279.21, comfortably trading within the 279–282 range that has prevailed since October. One-week forward contracts are priced at 279.60, reflecting a minimal carrying cost of 0.14%. Exporters tend to sell above 279.60, while petroleum importers accumulate when rates dip below 279.20. Market liquidity remains ample, with currency movements driven more by technical factors than fundamental changes.
Meanwhile, the British pound declined slightly to 374.06 from 374.80 the previous day. The one-year forward rate stands at 386.61, indicating an annualized depreciation of 3.4% against the rupee. Textile exporters to Manchester are hedging six-month receivables near 376, maintaining robust forward premiums.
The Saudi riyal edged up marginally to 74.4048, with a 12-month forward rate of 76.75, translating to an annualized 3.1% depreciation—the narrowest spread among key remittance currencies. Exchange houses report steady foot traffic from pilgrims securing rates ahead of the upcoming Umrah season.
The UAE dirham firmed slightly to 76.0265, with a six-month forward at 77.32, implying a 3.4% annualized rupee softness. Gulf salary remittances continue to flow through official banking channels, helping stabilize the cross-rate.
The Qatari riyal traded at 76.5802, closely mirroring other Gulf currencies. Its 12-month forward rate is 79.40, reflecting a 4.2% annualized differential, consistent with the Saudi riyal and UAE dirham, underscoring the stability of Gulf currency pegs.
The Kuwaiti dinar strengthened to 910.9667 against the steady US dollar cross. Twelve-month forwards at 940.37 suggest a 3.2% annualized rupee depreciation, slightly wider than Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) peers due to the dinar’s thinner market liquidity.
The Australian dollar slipped to 194.54 amid iron ore prices easing below $101 per ton. Its one-year forward rate is 200.35, implying a 3.0% annualized rupee depreciation, closely tracking the Saudi riyal curve and reflecting commodity-linked volatility.
The Canadian dollar retreated to 202.55 as WTI crude hovered near $73 per barrel. Twelve-month forwards at 212.97 indicate a 5.1% annualized rupee softness. However, prairie pulse importers have reportedly pre-booked April shipments, limiting further downside for the Canadian dollar.
Other major currencies opened with minor movements: the euro at 323.80, down 0.1% for the week following softer Eurozone inflation data, with a one-year forward at 340.78 indicating 5.3% annualized rupee depreciation. The Japanese yen remains the most affordable major currency at 1.75 per unit, though its forwards price a 6.3% annualized rupee decline—the steepest among G-10 currencies. The Swiss franc traded at 353.30; Singapore dollar at 218.11; Swedish krona at 29.99; Norwegian krone at 28.73; Danish krone at 43.33; New Zealand dollar at 162.38; Chinese yuan at 40.47; Turkish lira at 6.31; Russian ruble at 3.46; Indian rupee at 2.97; and Bangladeshi taka at 2.28. All remained within familiar ranges, indicating no event-risk premium ahead of the IMF’s first-quarter 2026 review.
The generally compressed forward premiums—barely 4–5% annualized even for the least liquid currency pairs—signal confidence among importers and exporters that the State Bank of Pakistan has sufficient resources to support the rupee during the winter remittance period. Foreign exchange reserves have risen to $21.26 billion, while the real effective exchange rate (REER) eased to 98.2 in November, a level the IMF considers “competitive yet not undervalued.”
In a significant development, barring an oil price surge above $90 per barrel or political instability disrupting the IMF program, market participants expect the USD/PKR rate to remain within the 278–282 band throughout the first quarter of 2026, influencing the broader currency market accordingly.
