In an alarming development amidst the ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, water infrastructure has emerged as a new and vulnerable target in the region’s escalating hostilities. While attacks on water systems have traditionally been rare during wartime, recent threats from Iran indicate a shift in strategy, with the country warning it may strike desalination plants after sustaining damage to its own water and energy facilities. This marks a significant escalation that could have far-reaching consequences for the Middle East’s already fragile water security.
On Sunday, Iran’s military command Khatam Al-Anbiya issued a stern warning, signaling a potential retaliation against critical infrastructure belonging to both the United States and Israel. This announcement followed US President Donald Trump’s declaration that power plants in Iran would be “obliterated” if the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passage, was not reopened promptly. The Iranian military emphasized that any attacks on its fuel and energy infrastructure would be met with countermeasures targeting energy, information technology, and desalination facilities across the region. This exchange of threats underscores the heightened tensions and the strategic importance both sides place on controlling essential utilities.
The backdrop to these warnings includes a series of recent incidents involving water infrastructure. On March 8, Bahrain reported that an Iranian drone strike had damaged one of its desalination plants, accusing Tehran of indiscriminately targeting civilian infrastructure. Although Bahrain’s national communications office later clarified that the attack did not disrupt water supply or network capacity, the incident heightened fears about the vulnerability of such facilities. This attack came shortly after Iran accused the United States of striking a desalination plant on Qeshm Island, which supplies water to approximately 30 villages. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed the US launched the attack from a base in Bahrain, further intensifying the cycle of accusations and counteraccusations.
Iranian Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi revealed that dozens of water transmission and treatment facilities had been targeted, resulting in the destruction of critical parts of the country’s water supply network. Experts warn that targeting water infrastructure could provoke a conflict far more devastating than the current hostilities. Water economist Esther Crauser-Delbourg highlighted the severe risks, noting that attacks on water supplies could escalate the war into a much larger humanitarian crisis, given the essential nature of water for survival and economic stability in the region.
The significance of desalinated water in the Middle East cannot be overstated. The region is one of the driest in the world, with water availability roughly ten times lower than the global average, World Bank data. This scarcity makes desalination plants indispensable for providing both drinking water and supporting economic activities. Nearly 42 percent of the world’s desalination capacity is concentrated in the Middle East, underscoring the region’s reliance on this technology. Countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Kuwait depend heavily on desalinated water for their populations, with figures ranging from 42 percent to as high as 90 percent of their drinking water supply.
Major urban centers such as Dubai and Riyadh are particularly dependent on these plants, which supply the lifeblood of their growing populations and industries. The strategic importance of desalination was highlighted as early as 2010 when the CIA warned that damage to such facilities in Arab countries could have catastrophic consequences, potentially more severe than the loss of any other industry. A leaked US diplomatic cable from 2008 even suggested that Riyadh might face evacuation within a week if the Jubail desalination plant or its pipelines were severely compromised, illustrating the critical vulnerability of these systems.
Desalination plants face multiple threats beyond direct military attacks. Power outages, contamination of seawater by oil spills, and other environmental hazards pose significant risks to their operation. Philippe Bourdeaux, regional director for Africa and the Middle East at Veolia, a company supplying desalinated water to key areas including Jubail in Saudi Arabia and several cities in Oman, explained that security measures around these plants have been intensified. In some countries, authorities have deployed missile defense systems near major desalination facilities to counter potential drone or missile attacks. Additionally, operators have developed protocols to mitigate damage from oil spills and other environmental threats, aiming to safeguard the continuous supply of water.
Historically, attacks on desalination infrastructure have been relatively rare but not unprecedented. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have targeted Saudi Arabia’s desalination plants in the past, while the Saudi-led coalition has retaliated by striking water infrastructure in Yemen. Israeli military operations have also damaged water systems in the Gaza Strip. These incidents, tracked by organizations such as the Pacific Institute, illustrate the growing role of water infrastructure in regional conflicts. The Gulf War in 1991 also saw similar attacks, indicating that water systems have long been recognized as strategic assets in warfare.
The potential consequences of escalating attacks on desalination plants are severe. Short-term disruptions could quickly spiral into widespread water shortages, forcing rationing and possibly triggering mass migrations from affected urban centers. The economic impact would be profound, affecting sectors such as tourism, industry, and data centers, all of which rely heavily on stable water supplies. Nevertheless, some resilience exists within the system. Many desalination plants are interconnected, allowing for partial compensation if one facility is taken offline. Furthermore, most plants maintain reserves sufficient to cover two to seven days of consumption, providing a buffer against short-term disruptions.
As tensions continue to simmer in the Middle East, the targeting of water infrastructure adds a dangerous new dimension to the conflict. The region’s dependence on desalinated water makes these facilities critical not only for civilian survival but also for maintaining social and economic stability. The international community and regional actors alike must recognize the catastrophic risks posed by attacks on such essential services and work towards safeguarding these lifelines amid ongoing hostilities.
