Iranian military strikes have severely impacted Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure, resulting in the loss of approximately 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity. This disruption is expected to cause an estimated $20 billion in annual revenue losses and poses a significant threat to energy supplies across Europe and Asia. Saad al-Kaabi, QatarEnergy’s CEO and state minister for energy affairs, revealed these details during a detailed interview on Thursday, highlighting the unprecedented nature of the attacks and their far-reaching consequences.
Kaabi, two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains, which are critical components in the liquefaction process, along with one of the nation’s two gas-to-liquids (GTL) plants, sustained substantial damage during the strikes. The repair work required to restore these facilities is expected to sideline around 12.8 million tons of LNG production annually, with the downtime projected to last anywhere from three to five years. This extended period of reduced output will inevitably strain global energy markets, especially given Qatar’s role as one of the world’s leading LNG exporters.
Expressing his shock and disappointment, Kaabi emphasized the unexpected nature of the attacks, particularly given the historical and religious ties between Qatar and Iran. He remarked that he never imagined Qatar or the wider Gulf region would face such aggression from a fellow Muslim nation, especially during the holy month of Ramadan. This sentiment underscores the deep sense of betrayal felt by Qatar’s leadership and citizens alike, as the strikes not only damage infrastructure but also strain regional relations.
The attacks on Qatar came shortly after Iran retaliated against Israeli strikes targeting its own gas facilities, marking a dangerous escalation in the ongoing regional tensions. As a result of the damage, QatarEnergy has been forced to declare force majeure on several long-term LNG supply contracts, which could remain in effect for up to five years. These contracts involve key international buyers, including companies in Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China. Kaabi noted that while the company had previously declared force majeure for shorter periods, the current situation demands a much longer suspension due to the extensive repairs needed.
Adding to the complexity of the situation, major international energy corporations are involved in the affected facilities. ExxonMobil, a US-based oil giant, holds significant stakes in the damaged LNG trains, while Shell is a partner in the impaired GTL plant. Specifically, ExxonMobil owns 34% of LNG train S4 and 30% of train S6, both of which are now offline. These trains supply LNG to prominent buyers such as Italy’s Edison, Belgium’s EDFT, South Korea’s KOGAS, and Shell’s operations in China. The GTL facility damage, which Shell partly owns, is expected to take up to a year to repair, further complicating the recovery timeline.
Kaabi described the scale of the destruction as a setback equivalent to losing a decade or two of progress in the region’s energy sector. Qatar has long been considered a stable and secure hub for energy production, attracting investment and providing a safe haven for workers and businesses alike. However, this image has been severely tarnished by the recent attacks, raising concerns about the future security of energy infrastructure in the Gulf.
The repercussions extend beyond LNG alone. Qatar’s exports of condensate—a light hydrocarbon liquid used in refining—are expected to decline by roughly 24%. Similarly, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports will drop by 13%, helium production will decrease by 14%, and both naphtha and sulfur outputs will fall by 6%. These reductions have wide-ranging implications, from LPG used in Indian restaurants to helium critical for South Korea’s semiconductor manufacturing. The total investment lost due to the damaged units is estimated at around $26 billion, underscoring the financial magnitude of the attacks.
Meanwhile, Qatar’s ambitious North Field expansion project, which aims to significantly boost LNG production capacity, has come to a halt. Kaabi indicated that this major development could face delays exceeding a year, further complicating Qatar’s ability to meet growing global energy demand. He also stressed that the conflict between Iran and Israel should remain confined to those two nations, warning that other countries must avoid targeting oil and gas facilities to prevent further destabilization of the region’s energy supplies.
