In recent months, several experts within the coffee sector have begun drawing parallels between the coffee and cocoa markets, suggesting that coffee prices might experience a significant downturn similar to the sharp decline witnessed in cocoa prices. This comparison gained traction during the National Coffee Association’s annual convention held last week in Tampa, Florida, where industry leaders debated the likelihood of coffee’s price trajectory mirroring that of cocoa, which saw a historic crash after reaching record highs in 2024.
Carley Garner, a senior commodities strategist at DeCarley Trading, a division of Zaner, expressed strong confidence in this outlook, stating that she would be surprised if coffee prices did not follow the downward trend. Garner went as far as to declare, “I do think coffee is the new cocoa,” highlighting the growing sentiment that coffee’s market dynamics are shifting in a way that could lead to a similar price collapse.
To provide some context, cocoa prices in New York surged to an unprecedented peak of over $12,000 per ton in December 2024, driven largely by adverse weather conditions in key producing regions that severely limited supply. However, just over a year later, cocoa prices plummeted by more than 70 percent. This drastic fall was largely attributed to consumers cutting back on premium chocolate purchases and manufacturers responding by downsizing packaging or reformulating products to include less cocoa, opting for cheaper substitutes instead.
Similarly, arabica coffee prices climbed sharply due to unfavorable weather patterns in tropical growing areas, reaching record highs in February 2025. The situation was further complicated by trade distortions caused by tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, which disrupted the flow of coffee into the United States. Despite these factors, expectations of a strong recovery in Brazil’s coffee production—the world’s largest producer—have since exerted downward pressure on prices throughout 2025.
Garner predicts that coffee prices could fall to around $2 per pound by the end of this year, citing weakening demand as a key factor. Echoing this sentiment, Digby Beatson-Hird, a coffee analyst at Avere Commodities, forecasts an even steeper decline, anticipating prices to drop to approximately $1.80 per pound. This is a significant shift considering that coffee futures closed near $2.93 per pound recently.
Consumer behavior appears to be adapting to these price changes as well. A survey conducted by the National Coffee Association in January, which included 1,500 U.S. participants, revealed that 61 percent of respondents have taken steps to reduce their coffee-related expenses. Many have cut back on visits to coffee shops, opting instead to brew more coffee at home, while others have switched to more affordable brands. Interestingly, the overall number of coffee drinkers has remained stable, indicating that while spending habits are changing, the love for coffee endures.
The industry itself is responding to these shifts in demand. David Behrends, managing partner and head of trading at Sucafina SA—one of the largest coffee merchants globally—observed that higher-priced mild arabicas, such as those from Colombia and Central America, are losing market share. In contrast, the more economical robusta beans are gaining popularity, reflecting a broader trend toward cost-cutting among consumers and suppliers alike.
Despite the current stagnation in coffee demand during 2025, Carlos Mera, chief coffee analyst at Rabobank, remains optimistic. He notes that the market saw no growth last year, breaking from the historical average annual demand increase of 2.3 percent observed before the pandemic. Mera believes that the recent price declines will eventually benefit consumers, stimulating demand once again. He projects a modest 2 percent growth in coffee consumption for 2026, signaling a potential recovery on the horizon.
It is important to highlight the notable differences in demand patterns between coffee and cocoa, which may explain why some experts remain cautious about predicting a price collapse for coffee identical to cocoa’s. Additionally, while Brazil is expected to harvest a record coffee crop, analysts suggest that this may not translate into immediate price relief. Cleber Castro, a sales representative for numerous Brazilian farms, producers are financially stable and likely to manage their sales strategically, holding back some stock to maintain market balance rather than flooding the market all at once.
As the coffee market navigates these complex factors—ranging from weather impacts and trade policies to evolving consumer preferences and production forecasts—the coming months will be critical in determining whether coffee truly becomes the “new cocoa” in terms of price volatility. Industry stakeholders and consumers alike will be watching closely as this story unfolds.
