In a recent presentation before the Senate Intelligence Committee, the US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, spotlighted Pakistan as one of several countries emerging as significant strategic challenges due to their advancing missile programs. She cautioned that Islamabad’s ongoing efforts to enhance its long-range ballistic missile capabilities might eventually place the American mainland within striking distance. This revelation underscores the evolving nature of global missile threats and the shifting dynamics of international security.
During the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, Gabbard also identified Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea as key players aggressively developing new missile delivery systems. These systems, equipped with both nuclear and conventional warheads, represent a growing concern for US national security. She emphasized that while the United States maintains a robust and secure nuclear deterrent designed to protect the homeland from strategic attacks, the rapid technological advancements by these nations are narrowing the gap in missile capabilities.
Highlighting Pakistan’s missile program in particular, Gabbard noted that Islamabad’s ballistic missile development efforts might eventually encompass intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which have the theoretical range to reach targets deep within US territory. This assertion marks a significant development in how Pakistan’s military advancements are perceived internationally, especially given the country’s historically regional focus in its strategic doctrine.
Moreover, the intelligence community projects a sharp increase in the number of missile threats worldwide. Current estimates suggest that global missile inventories, which now stand at over 3,000, could surge to more than 16,000 by 2035. This dramatic rise reflects not only the proliferation of missile technology but also the intensifying competition among nations to enhance their offensive and defensive capabilities. Gabbard further explained that the countries identified in the report are likely to study US missile defense strategies closely, aiming to tailor their own programs and gauge Washington’s deterrence posture.
In response to these claims, former Pakistani ambassador to the United States, Jalil Abbas Jilani, firmly rejected the notion that Pakistan poses a direct missile threat to the US homeland. He reiterated that Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine remains firmly focused on deterrence against India, its regional rival, rather than any ambitions of projecting power globally. Jilani emphasized that Islamabad’s strategic priorities are centered on maintaining regional stability and security, rather than engaging in an arms race with distant powers.
Adding to the debate, Turkish analyst Shaqeq-ud-Din questioned the validity of the US assessment regarding Pakistan’s missile capabilities. He pointed out that Pakistan currently does not possess intercontinental ballistic missiles and expressed concern over India’s expanding ICBM arsenal, which he suggested is growing with external assistance. Shaqeq-ud-Din criticized what he described as selective threat classifications, urging for a more balanced and comprehensive evaluation of missile developments across all nations.
The threat assessment report also highlighted the persistent security challenges emanating from South Asia, particularly the fraught relationship between Pakistan and India. It underscored the ongoing risk of nuclear escalation between the two countries, both of which possess nuclear weapons and have a history of armed conflicts. The report referenced the Pahalgam attack, an incident that previously triggered a war between the neighbors, illustrating how terrorist actions continue to serve as flashpoints for potential crises.
While the report acknowledged that neither Pakistan nor India currently seeks to reignite open hostilities, it warned that the volatile environment remains susceptible to provocations by terrorist groups. It credited former US President Donald Trump’s diplomatic efforts with helping to de-escalate recent nuclear tensions, though it stressed that the underlying issues remain unresolved.
Additionally, the document drew attention to the tense situation along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. It noted that relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have been strained, marked by intermittent cross-border clashes. Islamabad’s frustration has grown over the continued presence of anti-Pakistan militant groups operating from Afghan territory, which has contributed to an increase in terrorist violence within Pakistan.
Pakistan’s army chief recently underscored that sustainable peace in the region hinges on the Taliban severing ties with militants targeting Pakistan. Despite the Taliban’s public calls for dialogue, they have consistently denied providing safe haven to anti-Pakistani militants. This ongoing conflict between the two sides adds another layer of complexity to the already fragile security landscape in South Asia.
