ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) has released its astronomical forecast regarding the timing of Eid-ul-Fitr in 2026, indicating that the festival will most likely be celebrated on Saturday, March 21. This projection is based on detailed calculations of the lunar cycle, which play a crucial role in determining the Islamic calendar dates observed across the country.
SUPARCO’s analysis highlights that the chances of sighting the Shawwal moon on Thursday, March 19, are extremely slim. The new moon, marking the beginning of the lunar month, was born at 6:23 am on the same day. However, by the time the sun sets, the moon’s age will be approximately 12 hours and 41 minutes — a duration generally considered insufficient for the crescent to be visible to the naked eye. This early stage of the moon’s appearance typically makes it difficult for observers to spot the crescent without the aid of telescopes or other instruments.
Adding to the challenge, along Pakistan’s coastal regions, the interval between sunset and moonset will be around 28 minutes. This narrow window further reduces the likelihood of a successful moon sighting, as the crescent needs to be visible for a reasonable period after sunset to be confirmed. Experts in lunar observations emphasize that for a crescent moon to be clearly seen, it should ideally be at least 20 hours old. Given these conditions, the probability of sighting the Shawwal moon on March 19 remains very low.
Consequently, the country is expected to complete a full 30 days of Ramadan, with Eid-ul-Fitr celebrations anticipated to take place on March 21. This aligns with the traditional practice of observing a complete lunar month when the moon is not visible on the 29th day. However, it is important to note that the final decision rests with the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee, which will convene in Islamabad to review all moon sighting reports and make an official announcement regarding the date of Eid.
The Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee’s meeting, chaired by Maulana Abdul Khabir Azad, will be held today with the primary objective of sighting the Shawwal moon. Simultaneously, zonal and district-level Ruet-e-Hilal Committees across Pakistan will conduct their own observations and gather testimonies from local moon sighting witnesses. These coordinated efforts ensure that the decision on Eid’s date is based on comprehensive and verified information from various parts of the country.
It is also noteworthy that the crescent moon was not sighted on the previous evening in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations. This development means that Eid-ul-Fitr will be observed in those countries on Friday, March 20, 2026, a day earlier than Pakistan’s expected celebration. Such differences in moon sighting dates are common due to geographical and atmospheric variations affecting visibility.
As the nation awaits the official declaration, communities across Pakistan prepare to conclude their month-long fasting and spiritual reflection. The precise timing of Eid remains a matter of great significance, not only religiously but also socially, as families and communities come together to mark the joyous occasion.
