A Pakistani-flagged tanker has recently traversed the Strait of Hormuz by following a route closely hugging the Iranian coastline, signaling a significant shift in how vessels may now need to secure Tehran’s consent to safely pass through this strategically crucial maritime chokepoint. This development comes amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, where the ongoing conflict involving the US and Israel against Iran has entered its third week, resulting in over 2,000 casualties with no clear resolution in sight.
The Strait of Hormuz holds immense global importance as it channels approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. However, the waterway remains largely inaccessible due to the conflict, with key US allies declining President Donald Trump’s appeals for assistance in reopening this vital corridor. This blockade has triggered a surge in global energy prices and heightened fears of inflationary pressures worldwide, underscoring the strait’s critical role in the international energy supply chain.
Data tracking vessel movements reveals that the Pakistani tanker named Karachi navigated a narrow passage between the Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm on Sunday, maintaining open communication signals throughout its transit before proceeding into the Gulf of Oman. Following this, two bulk carriers adopted the same coastal route on Monday morning, openly signaling their passage through the strait. This contrasts with many other ships that have chosen to switch off their transponders, likely as a precautionary measure amid security concerns.
In addition to these, two Indian-flagged liquefied petroleum gas tankers passed through the strait in the early hours of Saturday, while a general cargo ship registered under the Gambian flag exited the waterway on Tuesday. However, electronic interference in the region has sporadically disrupted signals from vessels near Larak, making it difficult to fully trace their exact routes. This interference is believed to be deliberate, aimed at scrambling navigational data and complicating monitoring efforts.
Experts from the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies suggest that if this Iran-coordinated route continues to be used effectively, it may indicate the establishment of a de facto traffic control system by Tehran. Such a system could imply that Iran is targeting vessels along the traditional shipping lanes—potentially through attacks or the deployment of mines—while keeping a designated channel open for ships it deems friendly or approved.
Harrison Prétat, deputy director and fellow at the initiative, points out that the current use of this coastal route appears linked to Iran’s selective approval of certain vessels, which aligns with Tehran’s ability to exert tighter control over this narrower passage. Since the onset of US and Israeli military actions more than two weeks ago, Iran has struck multiple ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz, effectively disrupting maritime traffic and causing significant delays and restrictions for vessels attempting to enter or exit the Persian Gulf.
This disruption has created an unprecedented shock to global energy trade, with some ships stranded within the Gulf while others remain unable to access the waterway. Financial institutions and insurers have taken note, as these developments have introduced new risks and uncertainties. Insurers typically designate high-risk zones in their policies, and banks often issue compliance warnings when vessels they finance operate near Iranian waters, complicating the logistics and financing of commodity shipments.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co., including Natasha Kaneva, have observed that while the Strait of Hormuz is not officially closed, the reality on the ground is that transit increasingly depends on political negotiations and tacit agreements with Tehran. Under normal circumstances, ships avoid sailing so close to Iran’s coast due to security concerns, and standard navigation routes usually direct vessels away from Iranian shores. However, recent attacks on vessels following traditional routes have likely prompted this shift toward the Iran-approved corridor.
Maritime security expert Martin Kelly suggests that what we are witnessing could be the beginning of a formal verification process imposed by Iran, requiring ships to obtain approval before transiting the strait via the passage between Larak and Qeshm islands. Although these authorized transits offer some reassurance to oil traders, the proximity of the route to Iranian territory continues to raise alarms among insurers and financial institutions, who remain cautious about the risks involved.
Despite these developments, the number of vessels using this Iran-sanctioned route remains a small fraction of the usual traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz. Harrison Prétat emphasizes that these limited, authorized passages fall significantly short of restoring the typical shipping flows and energy exports from the region, leaving the global energy market vulnerable to ongoing volatility and uncertainty.
