The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the war involving Iran, has compounded the difficulties faced by Indian airlines, which heavily rely on the region as a vital transit corridor for flights bound for Europe and North America. This situation has become even more critical since Pakistan imposed a ban on Indian carriers using its airspace last year, limiting alternative flight paths and forcing airlines to navigate increasingly complex and longer routes.
With the war escalating, airlines have been compelled to reschedule and reroute numerous flights to avoid conflict zones, but Indian carriers find themselves with very few viable options. The closure of Pakistani airspace has effectively cut off the most direct and fuel-efficient paths to western destinations. Data from Cirium reveals that in the past ten days alone, India’s two largest international airlines, Air India and IndiGo, have canceled nearly 64% of their 1,230 scheduled flights to the Middle East, Europe, and North America, highlighting the severe operational disruption caused by these geopolitical tensions.
Aviation expert Amit Mittal described the situation as a “double whammy” for Indian international carriers, emphasizing the compounded impact of both the Middle East war and Pakistan’s airspace restrictions. The ban by Pakistan, which has been in place since April last year following heightened military tensions between the two neighboring countries, continues to severely restrict flight options for Indian airlines. This geopolitical standoff has forced carriers to seek longer, less direct routes, increasing operational costs and flight durations.
Financial institutions have also taken note of the mounting pressures on Indian airlines. HSBC recently highlighted that the current geopolitical instability in the Middle East is expected to impose a “significant burden” on the profitability and cost structures of these carriers. The bank estimated that just a week of cancellations affecting these critical regions could reduce annual profit-before-tax estimates for Indian airlines by approximately 1.2%, underscoring the tangible financial impact of the ongoing crisis.
While some routes have resumed in recent days, IndiGo faces unique challenges due to its reliance on six long-range Boeing aircraft leased from Norse Atlantic Airways. These planes are registered in Norway, which subjects them to European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) advisories. EASA has urged airlines to avoid airspace over several Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. Consequently, IndiGo has been forced to reroute flights over Africa, adding up to two extra hours to some journeys, flight tracking service Flightradar24.
However, even these alternative routes have not been without complications. An IndiGo flight from Delhi to Manchester had to turn back after 13 hours in the air when Eritrean air traffic control denied permission to use its airspace, reportedly due to confusion over the aircraft’s Norwegian registration and its operation by IndiGo. The airline attributed the incident to “last-minute airspace restrictions.” Similarly, another IndiGo flight traveling from London to Mumbai was diverted to Cairo after facing the same airspace denial from Eritrea. These disruptions add to the operational strain on IndiGo, which recently saw the resignation of its CEO Pieter Elbers amid an ongoing operational crisis that drew public and governmental scrutiny in December.
Meanwhile, Air India has responded to the surge in demand caused by the Iran conflict by announcing plans to operate 78 additional flights between India, Europe, and the United States over the coming week. Despite this increase, the airline is grappling with longer flight times due to mandatory stopovers, which place it at a competitive disadvantage compared to carriers like Lufthansa and American Airlines. For example, Air India’s Delhi-New York flight recently made a stop in Rome, extending the journey to nearly 22 hours, whereas prior to the conflict, the same route could be completed in about 17 hours with a direct flight over Iraq and Turkey. By comparison, American Airlines managed a 16-hour flight on a similar route via Pakistan.
It is important to note that Air India, now owned by the Tata Group and Singapore Airlines following its privatization in 2022, has already been financially strained. The airline reported losses amounting to $433 million last year and has forecasted an annual revenue hit of $600 million due to the ongoing ban on Pakistani airspace. The extended flight durations not only increase fuel consumption but also exacerbate the impact of rising oil prices triggered by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, further inflating operational costs.
In summary, the combination of the Middle East war and Pakistan’s continued airspace restrictions has placed Indian airlines under unprecedented pressure. These developments have led to widespread flight cancellations, longer and more expensive routes, and significant financial losses. As geopolitical tensions persist, Indian carriers will need to navigate an increasingly complex landscape, balancing operational challenges with the demands of a recovering international travel market.
