The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the war involving Iran, has compounded the difficulties faced by Indian airlines, which already grapple with the consequences of Pakistan’s airspace ban imposed last year. This region serves as a vital corridor for flights connecting India to Europe and the United States, making the restrictions especially damaging for carriers relying on these routes. With the volatile situation forcing frequent flight rescheduling and rerouting, Indian airlines find themselves with very few viable alternatives, as they remain barred from flying over Pakistani territory.
Major Indian international carriers such as Air India and IndiGo have been significantly impacted by these developments. Data from Cirium reveals that in the past ten days, these airlines failed to operate nearly 64% of their scheduled 1,230 flights to destinations in the Middle East, Europe, and North America. This disruption represents a serious setback for the Indian aviation sector, which was already struggling to recover from the pandemic and geopolitical tensions. Aviation experts describe the situation as a “double whammy” for Indian carriers, highlighting the compounded effect of simultaneous restrictions on multiple fronts.
Pakistan’s decision to ban Indian airlines from its airspace dates back to April of the previous year, following heightened military tensions between the two neighboring countries. This ban has forced Indian airlines to take longer, less efficient routes, increasing operational costs and flight durations. The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East has only intensified these challenges, as airlines must now navigate around conflict zones in the region, further complicating flight planning and logistics.
HSBC recently warned that the geopolitical instability in the Middle East would impose a “significant burden” on the profitability of Indian airlines. The financial institution estimated that just a single week of cancellations affecting these critical routes could reduce the annual profit-before-tax of these airlines by approximately 1.2%. While some routes have resumed operations in recent days, IndiGo faces unique hurdles due to its reliance on six Boeing long-range aircraft leased from Norse Atlantic Airways. Since these planes are registered in Norway, they must comply with a European Union Aviation Safety Agency advisory that restricts flying over several Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
As a result, IndiGo has been forced to chart longer routes that often pass over African airspace, increasing flight durations by as much as two hours in some cases. However, these alternative routes are not without complications. For instance, an IndiGo flight from Delhi to Manchester had to return to Delhi after 13 hours in the air when Eritrea’s air traffic control denied permission to use its airspace, citing confusion over the operation of a Norse-registered aircraft by IndiGo. Another IndiGo flight from London to Mumbai encountered similar issues over Eritrea and was compelled to divert to Cairo. These incidents underscore the operational challenges and uncertainties Indian airlines face amid the current geopolitical landscape.
Meanwhile, Air India has announced plans to operate 78 additional flights between India, Europe, and the United States over the coming week to meet rising demand triggered by the Iran conflict. However, the airline is also experiencing longer flight times due to mandatory stopovers, which puts it at a competitive disadvantage compared to rivals like Lufthansa and American Airlines. For example, Air India’s Delhi to New York flight recently included a stop in Rome, extending the total travel time to nearly 22 hours. Prior to the Iran war, the same journey could be completed in about 17 hours with a direct route over Iraq and Turkey. In contrast, American Airlines managed to complete a similar route in approximately 16 hours by flying over Pakistan.
It is important to note that Air India, now owned by the Tata Group and Singapore Airlines, has already been facing financial difficulties. The airline reported losses amounting to $433 million last year and has forecasted an annual financial hit of $600 million due to the ongoing Pakistan airspace ban. The additional fuel consumption and operational costs resulting from longer flight paths will only exacerbate these losses, especially amid rising oil prices triggered by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. These developments paint a challenging picture for Indian carriers as they navigate a complex web of geopolitical tensions and operational constraints, with no immediate resolution in sight.
