In a stark warning to the international community, Iran’s military command announced on Wednesday that global oil prices could soar to as high as $200 per barrel. This cautionary statement came as tensions in the Gulf region intensified, with three additional vessels reportedly coming under attack in the strategically vital and heavily contested Strait of Hormuz. The waterway remains blockaded, severely disrupting the flow of energy supplies and escalating fears of a prolonged crisis.
The recent attacks underscore Iran’s capability to retaliate despite the United States and Israel conducting what the Pentagon has described as the most intense airstrikes yet against Iranian targets. On the same day, Iran launched missile strikes targeting Israel and various locations across the Middle East, signaling its determination to continue its military response. These developments have kept global energy markets on edge, even though oil prices, which surged earlier in the week, have somewhat stabilized and stock markets have rebounded as investors remain hopeful for a swift resolution to the conflict.
However, the situation on the ground remains volatile, with no indication that maritime traffic can safely navigate the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow channel along Iran’s coastline is critical, as it handles nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil exports. The ongoing blockade represents the most severe disruption to global energy supplies since the oil shocks of the 1970s, raising concerns about long-term impacts on the global economy and energy security.
Addressing the United States directly, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s military command, emphasized that the current instability in the region has directly influenced oil prices. He warned, “Prepare for oil to reach $200 a barrel,” attributing the price volatility to the security turmoil that the U.S. has exacerbated. In a further escalation, Zolfaqari threatened retaliatory attacks on financial institutions that maintain business ties with the U.S. or Israel, urging civilians across the Middle East to maintain a safe distance of at least 1,000 meters from banks to avoid potential harm.
Meanwhile, within Israel, senior officials have privately acknowledged that Iran’s ruling regime appears resilient despite the ongoing conflict. There is no indication that the United States is close to ending its military campaign, which has been underway for nearly two weeks. The conflict has also taken a personal toll on Iran’s leadership; reports indicate that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was lightly wounded in early airstrikes that tragically claimed the lives of several family members. Since then, Mojtaba has remained out of public view, heightening speculation about his condition.
Public displays of defiance in Iran have been widespread, with large crowds gathering to mourn top commanders killed in recent airstrikes. These funerals have become powerful demonstrations of national solidarity, featuring flags and portraits of the Supreme Leader and his son. At the same time, the Iranian military has intensified its missile attacks, targeting a U.S. base in northern Iraq, the U.S. naval headquarters in Bahrain, and locations within central Israel. Explosions were reported in Bahrain, while in Dubai, two drones crashed near the airport, injuring four people. In response to the heightened threat, Bahrain’s Civil Aviation Affairs relocated several Gulf Air passenger-free aircraft and cargo planes to alternate airports to maintain operational safety during this turbulent period.
Life in Tehran has been profoundly affected by the conflict, with residents adapting to nightly airstrikes that have driven hundreds of thousands from the city to rural areas. The air has been tainted by black rain resulting from oil fires, yet many locals, like 52-year-old Farshid, have expressed a grim acceptance of the new normal, stating, “There were bombings last night, but I did not get scared like before. Life goes on.”
The maritime security situation remains precarious as three more merchant ships were hit by unidentified projectiles in the Gulf, bringing the total number of vessels attacked since the conflict began to fourteen. Among the affected were a Thai-flagged bulk freighter that caught fire following an explosion, a Japanese container ship, and a bulk carrier registered in the Marshall Islands. Despite oil prices briefly spiking to nearly $120 a barrel earlier in the week, they have since settled around $90, reflecting market optimism that U.S. President Donald Trump might broker a swift end to hostilities and reopen the strait.
In response to the crisis, the International Energy Agency is reportedly preparing to recommend an unprecedented release of 400 million barrels from global strategic reserves. While this measure aims to ease supply shortages, it would only cover approximately three weeks of oil flow through the strait, highlighting the limited options available to mitigate the impact of the blockade.
U.S. and Israeli officials have made clear that their objective is to dismantle Iran’s capacity to exert influence beyond its borders and to halt its nuclear ambitions. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz declared that the military operation would continue indefinitely until all goals are achieved and victory is secured. However, the protracted conflict raises the risk of severe consequences for the global economy. Should Iran’s clerical regime endure, Tehran is likely to claim victory, further complicating regional dynamics.
On the domestic front, Iran’s police chief Ahmadreza Radan issued a stern warning that any public demonstrations would be met with force, labeling protesters as enemies. Iran has also made it clear that it will not allow oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz until U.S. and Israeli attacks cease, refusing to engage in negotiations. President Trump has threatened to respond with overwhelming force if Iran maintains the blockade, though U.S. officials have not disclosed any specific military plans to reopen the strait.
In Israel, air defense systems intercepted missile attacks before dawn, prompting sirens and sending citizens to shelters. Concurrently, Israel launched strikes on Beirut targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group that has fired rockets into Israeli territory from Lebanon in support of Tehran. The human toll of the conflict is mounting, with over 1,300 Iranian civilians reported killed since the U.S. and Israeli air campaign began on February 28. Casualties have also been reported in Lebanon and Israel, including the deaths of two Israeli soldiers and at least 11 civilians from Iranian strikes. The United States has suffered losses as well, with seven soldiers killed and approximately 140 wounded during the ongoing hostilities.
