The Pentagon is actively exploring strategies to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint in the Middle East. General Dan Caine, the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, highlighted on Tuesday the growing concerns over securing this narrow waterway, which plays a pivotal role in global energy supplies. The strait is a critical artery for international oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, with roughly 20% of the world’s energy exports traditionally transiting through it.
However, the situation has drastically deteriorated since the outbreak of hostilities between the US-Israeli coalition and Iran on February 28. Iran, which controls the northern coastline of the strait, has effectively imposed a blockade, causing maritime traffic to plummet by an astonishing 97%, data from the United Nations. This near-complete halt in shipping has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, prompting urgent efforts to stabilize oil prices and prevent a broader economic fallout.
To fully grasp the gravity of the situation, it is essential to understand the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow channel, situated between Iran and Oman, serves as the sole maritime outlet for several major oil and gas producers, including Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. The strait connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and beyond, making it indispensable for the export of hydrocarbons. On Monday, oil prices surged to their highest levels since 2022, reflecting fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Such price spikes risk triggering another wave of inflation and cost-of-living crises worldwide, reminiscent of the economic turmoil following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Beyond energy, the strait is also crucial for the global fertilizer supply chain. Approximately one-third of the world’s fertilizers, including key components like sulphur and ammonia, transit this passage. Any extended conflict could severely disrupt fertilizer availability, posing a direct threat to global food security. Analysts warn that a protracted war in the region could ignite an economic crisis comparable to the oil shocks of the 1970s, which had far-reaching consequences for energy-dependent economies worldwide.
Iran’s stance has further complicated efforts to maintain safe navigation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued stern warnings that any vessel attempting to pass through the strait risks being targeted. Since the conflict began, at least 11 ships have suffered attacks, underscoring the tangible dangers faced by commercial shipping. The sharp decline in maritime traffic is partly due to these threats and also because insurance companies have dramatically increased premiums—by as much as 300%—making passage financially prohibitive for many operators.
In response, the United States and its allies have pledged to enhance security measures in the region. On March 3, then-President Donald Trump announced that the US would actively protect oil tankers navigating the strait. He also directed the United States Development Finance Corporation to extend insurance and financial guarantees to shipping firms to mitigate their risks. Meanwhile, European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have indicated plans for a coordinated multinational mission involving European countries, India, and other Asian states to safeguard maritime traffic. However, Macron emphasized that such an operation would likely only be feasible once hostilities subside. France is already deploying a significant naval presence, including its aircraft carrier strike group, to the eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea, and potentially the Strait of Hormuz.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has also engaged in discussions with German and Italian counterparts to explore options for protecting commercial vessels in the strait. General Caine confirmed that a range of strategies is under consideration, although he refrained from disclosing specific details. These diplomatic and military efforts reflect the high stakes involved in maintaining the free flow of energy resources through this narrow corridor.
Securing the Strait of Hormuz presents formidable challenges. The waterway is notoriously difficult to defend due to its geography—shipping lanes are only about two nautical miles wide, forcing vessels to navigate tight turns near Iranian islands and a rugged coastline that offers ample cover for Iranian forces. maritime security experts at SSY Global, this terrain provides Iran with significant tactical advantages, complicating any escort or protection mission.
Despite the conventional Iranian navy being largely diminished, the IRGC retains a diverse and potent arsenal capable of threatening maritime traffic. This includes fast attack boats, unmanned surface vessels, speedboats, mini-submarines, naval mines, and even explosive-laden jet skis. Tom Sharpe, a retired Royal Navy commander, notes that Tehran’s capacity to produce around 10,000 drones monthly further enhances its asymmetric warfare capabilities. While short-term escorting of a limited number of ships daily might be achievable with a fleet of seven or eight destroyers providing air cover, sustaining such operations over months would demand significantly more resources and coordination.
Even if efforts succeed in neutralizing Iran’s ballistic missiles, drones, and floating mines, the threat of suicide attacks remains a persistent concern. Adel Bakawan, Director of the European Institute for Middle East and North African Studies, warns that such tactics could continue to endanger vessels despite conventional defenses. Kevin Rowlands, editor of the RUSI Journal, suggests that if the conflict endures, some form of escort arrangement will inevitably materialize, driven by the global imperative to keep Gulf oil flowing.
Historical precedents in the region illustrate the difficulties of securing critical maritime chokepoints. Yemen’s Houthi rebels, aligned with Tehran but with far fewer resources, managed to disrupt traffic through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait for over two years despite international naval patrols. This forced many shipping companies to reroute vessels around the southern tip of Africa, significantly increasing transit times and costs. While EU-led forces have had some success combating piracy off Somalia, the scale and sophistication of Iran’s capabilities present a far greater challenge.
In light of these risks, some Gulf states have sought alternatives to relying solely on the Strait of Hormuz. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have invested in pipeline infrastructure designed to bypass the strait. However, these pipelines are not yet fully operational, and past attacks—such as the 2019 assault on a Saudi east-west pipeline by Houthi militias—highlight their vulnerability. Thus, while alternative routes offer some relief, they are not yet a reliable substitute for maritime transit through the strait.
As tensions persist, the international community remains focused on balancing the need to protect vital energy shipments with the risks of escalating military confrontation. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether diplomatic efforts can de-escalate the situation or if more robust naval operations will be required to secure one of the world’s most important maritime passages.
