The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows, faces the threat of extended disruption due to Iran’s aggressive drone and missile operations. Since a recent escalation triggered by attacks from the United States and Israel on Iran, Tehran has unleashed a relentless barrage of hundreds of missiles and over a thousand drones targeting Gulf states allied with Washington. While many of these projectiles have been intercepted by sophisticated air defense systems, some have succeeded in striking residential areas, commercial infrastructure, and even U.S. military installations, causing notable damage.
Iran’s capacity to manufacture drones is substantial, with the country recognized as a major producer in the region. Estimates from the Centre for Information Resilience, a British government-funded research organization, suggest Tehran can produce approximately 10,000 drones monthly. This industrial capability underpins Iran’s sustained drone offensive, which has become a central element of its military strategy in the Gulf. However, the exact size of Iran’s missile arsenal remains uncertain, with figures ranging from around 2,500 Israeli military assessments to as many as 6,000 based on other expert analyses. The remaining volume of Iran’s munitions stockpile will likely influence the trajectory and duration of the ongoing conflict.
One of Iran’s primary strategic objectives has been to disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway separating Iran and Oman that facilitates about 20% of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Recent Iranian strikes have targeted six vessels, effectively bringing shipping activity in this critical energy corridor to a near standstill. This disruption has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, with Brent crude oil prices surging by 12% and European natural gas benchmarks climbing approximately 50% within the week. Energy market analysts warn that the instability could persist, further exacerbating price volatility worldwide.
Experts emphasize that Iran is unlikely to back down swiftly or easily. Bob McNally, president of the Rapidan Energy Group, Iran possesses the means to render the Strait unsafe for commercial navigation. The United States has responded by focusing its military efforts on targeting Iranian munitions depots, bases, and facilities that pose direct threats to the Strait. Nevertheless, McNally notes that even limited Iranian attacks on a few tankers could instill enough fear to deter shipping companies from transiting the area, effectively achieving Tehran’s objective through psychological impact as much as physical damage.
Despite Iran’s robust drone production, its missile supplies represent a more vulnerable aspect of its military capabilities. A former MI6 director points out that external resupply options are limited, with Russia unable to provide support and China likely to exercise caution due to geopolitical considerations. Any overt Chinese military assistance to Iran could strain relations with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, Iran’s missile inventory may have been depleted by previous support to allied groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. The 12-day conflict with Israel in June also drained some of Tehran’s missile reserves, although Israeli intelligence indicates partial replenishment since then.
Another critical constraint on Iran’s missile capabilities is the availability of launchers, which have reportedly decreased by at least 50% over the past year due to targeted strikes by Israel and the United States. This decline has continued over recent days, further limiting Iran’s ability to sustain prolonged missile attacks. Nevertheless, Iran’s drone fleet, particularly the latest Shahed-136 models with ranges between 700 and 1,000 kilometers, remains a formidable threat. These drones can reach any target along the southern Gulf coast when launched from Iranian territory or vessels at sea. Many are produced in dual-use facilities that could be rapidly adapted to increase output, ensuring a steady supply despite military pressures.
The effectiveness of these drones has been demonstrated by their ability to penetrate Gulf states’ air defenses, with at least 65 drones having entered the United Arab Emirates since hostilities escalated. Targets have included Amazon data centers, Dubai International Airport, and a Fairmont hotel. Bahrain has also suffered damage to critical infrastructure, a U.S. naval base, and a mixed-use tower housing a hotel and residential apartments. These attacks underscore the broad scope of Iran’s campaign and its capacity to inflict damage on both civilian and military assets.
Looking ahead, oil traders and market watchers remain on edge as they anticipate the potential for further price spikes depending on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains compromised. A senior executive at Vitol, a leading global commodity trading firm, expressed significant concern that the current risk is not fully reflected in oil prices. There is speculation that Iran may be initially deploying older missiles and drones to exhaust Gulf states’ air defenses before escalating its response. Should Iran’s missile and drone supplies dwindle, it could resort to deploying sea mines, which would pose a different and potentially more prolonged hazard to maritime traffic.
Tehran reportedly possesses between 5,000 and 6,000 sea mines, Dryad Global, a maritime risk intelligence company. These mines can be anchored to the seabed, propelled by rockets, or allowed to drift with currents, detonating upon contact with vessels. Although there is currently no evidence that mines have been laid in the Strait of Hormuz, experts warn that their deployment would significantly complicate efforts to restore safe passage. Cormac McCarry, director at Control Risks specializing in maritime security, cautions that clearing mines could extend the period of disruption to several months, amplifying the economic and geopolitical fallout from the conflict.
